Following Independence Day celebrations, a pressing question surfaces: does America still embrace immigration as a cornerstone of its success? This topic extends beyond historical context, touching the nation’s future economy.
Recent immigration restrictions, such as fewer green cards, travel bans, and reduced refugee grants, have impacted immigration levels. The U.S. Census Bureau reported a decline in net international migration from 2.7 million in 2024 to a projected 321,000 in 2026, marking a historic drop.
Economic Concerns and Realities
Restrictions often stem from worries about immigration’s economic impact, especially on state budgets. A growing population does pressure public services. However, a study I coauthored challenges the notion that immigrants drain state economies.
Analyzing data from 2008 to 2023, we found a 1 percent increase in a state’s immigrant population correlates with a 1.5 percent boost in private sector GDP. This growth exceeds the population increase percentage. Effects vary by state—states like West Virginia and Montana show substantial impacts.
Demographic Challenges
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts slowing U.S. population growth over the next 30 years. Fertility rates are falling, making net migration essential. By 2030, without immigration, the population is expected to decline.
An aging population compounds this issue. The CBO anticipates the working-age to elderly ratio to drop, leading to fewer innovators and contributions to programs like Social Security.
State-Level Strategies
Although immigration law is federal, states can influence reform to benefit economically. States worried about population loss have a strong case for immigration. By lowering taxes and easing regulations, they can increase immigration’s benefits.
Facilitating job access, business startups, credential transfers, and occupational licenses helps immigrants contribute quickly.
A Historical and Future Asset
America prides itself on being a nation of immigrants and a symbol of hope, captured in the Statue of Liberty’s sonnet. Gallup data shows 79 percent of Americans view immigration positively.
Some fear immigrants use more resources than they contribute. Our study suggests otherwise. Immigration allows individuals to pursue the American Dream, bringing economic benefits to the broader population. For many states, newcomers are integral to economic growth.
John Bitzan is the Menard Family Director of the Sheila and Robert Challey Institute for Global Innovation and Growth at North Dakota State University.