Over the weekend, Texas faced another challenging moment, losing 27-24 at home to an unranked Florida team. This result signifies a tough stretch for the Longhorns, who began the season 4-0, including a notable victory against then-No. 1 Ohio State. However, they have now endured two consecutive narrow losses, first in the Red River Rivalry against Oklahoma, and now to the Gators.
The defeat by Florida carries extra weight because the Gators played without their starting quarterback and top wide receiver. Arch Manning’s performance was again a focal point, as he completed 14 of 20 passes for 173 yards and one touchdown but lost a crucial fumble that dashed comeback hopes. This loss significantly diminished Texas’ College Football Playoff prospects. According to Polymarket, their chances have plunged to 36%, down from over 70% before the Florida game.
The Longhorns had an undefeated start, notching victories over teams like the Buckeyes and then-No. 14 Tennessee, as well as dominant wins against Texas State and UTSA. Nonetheless, the recent setbacks have been severe. The team now stands at 4-2 overall, with a 1-2 record in SEC play, dropping to No. 19 in the AP Top 25 after formerly reaching the No. 1 position. Though two losses might seem manageable, falling to unranked conference rivals is a tough scenario for Coach Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns.
Their path to the CFP looks daunting because any remaining misstep could be fatal. Upcoming games include hosting No. 7 Ole Miss, a 5-1 team fresh off consecutive victories, followed by matches against Mississippi State, Missouri, LSU, Arkansas, and Texas A&M, with the latter two being road games. Five of the last six games involve SEC teams with winning records, with three on the road. The potential ramifications of even one more loss highlight the importance of the Florida game.
If Texas fails to qualify for the 12-team playoff, the consequences could be significant. Sarkisian and Manning were already under pressure before the season, and expectations were elevated due to the talent level on the roster. Not recovering from back-to-back losses to secure a CFP spot would pose a formidable challenge for the program.