Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s chances of winning the Ohio gubernatorial race have hit a new low, according to prediction market site Kalshi. On Monday, Kalshi reported Ramaswamy’s odds at 43 percent, marking his all-time low, as he competes against Democrat Amy Acton.
Throughout the year, Ramaswamy’s odds have fluctuated. In April, his chances fell below Acton’s before improving at the end of May. By mid-August, he was trailing Acton again, with no recovery since then. The midterm elections often serve as a gauge for the party in power, with the president’s party typically losing seats. Currently, Republicans maintain a narrow majority in both the House and Senate.
Former President Donald Trump, who secured Ohio in the 2024 election against then-Vice President Kamala Harris, supports Ramaswamy in his quest for the governor’s position. Newsweek reached out to both Acton and Ramaswamy’s campaigns for comment on Monday.
Both candidates are vying for the seat as GOP Governor Mike DeWine approaches term limits. Acton, a physician and former director of Ohio’s Department of Health, faces Ramaswamy in a state that has recently leaned Republican, despite voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.
In Ohio, Democrats are eyeing the governor’s race as a key opportunity in the 2026 midterms. They also aim to reclaim Senator Sherrod Brown’s seat, which he lost to Republican Bernie Moreno in the last election. A comeback attempt by Brown against Republican Jon Husted is anticipated. Recent surveys suggest tight races, with Acton and Brown often holding slight leads. The Cook Political Report categorizes the Ohio Senate election as a toss-up.
Democrats hope to exploit Trump’s declining approval ratings and contentious issues like immigration and foreign policy within the ongoing Iran conflict. Prediction market site Polymarket places Acton’s chances of winning at 58 percent compared to Ramaswamy’s 41 percent. Acton’s lead over her Republican opponent has persisted since late August.
Craig Agranoff, a political professor at Florida Atlantic University, explained to Newsweek that the drop in Ramaswamy’s Kalshi odds warrants attention, as Ohio is considered favorable terrain for Republicans. He pointed out that prediction markets are evolving as essential platforms for political strategy and insight, even though they aren’t a definitive measure of voter sentiment.
Polling has shown varied results. A YouGov and Bowling Green State University poll indicates Acton leading with 48 percent to Ramaswamy’s 45 percent. Libertarian Don Kissick holds 4 percent, while 3 percent opted for other candidates. However, 62 percent of respondents believe Ramaswamy will win, despite personal preferences. The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of 4 percent.
Another poll by Wedgewood shows Acton leading by 1 percent over Ramaswamy, with 7 percent undecided. This survey included 800 likely voters and also had a 4 percent margin of error. Meanwhile, a Fox News Poll displays Ramaswamy with a slight lead of 50 percent against Acton’s 48 percent, showcasing a change from June’s results. Ramaswamy’s favorability stands at 46 percent compared to 44 percent unfavorable ratings. Acton’s ratings are 43 percent favorable and 47 percent unfavorable, with a margin of error of 3 percent.
The Cook Political Report has rated the gubernatorial race as a toss-up, indicating its competitiveness. As the election approaches, both campaigns will need to strategize carefully to sway undecided voters and secure victory.