Recent polling from Fox News unveils concerning trends for Republicans in the North Carolina Senate race. Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 9 percentage points, with 53% compared to 44%. This highlights Democrats’ growing belief that they might secure a seat pivotal in the Senate control battle.
The survey contains unsettling details for Republicans beyond the overall margin. Democrats show greater enthusiasm ahead of the midterm elections, with 51% describing themselves as ‘extremely interested’ in the election versus 42% of Republicans.
Democratic motivation is also higher, with 58% reporting they are highly motivated to vote, compared to 50% of Republicans. This enthusiasm could be decisive during the midterm elections.
The difference in enthusiasm is directly aiding Cooper’s electoral strength.
Among those intensely interested in the election, Cooper expands his lead dramatically to 57%, compared to 42% for Whatley. He also posts a 13-point lead among those motivated to vote, showing 55% versus 42%. Cooper’s advantage remains at 9 points among voters certain to vote—53% to 44%. These figures spell trouble for Republicans as highly engaged voters are likelier to participate on Election Day.
According to Republican pollster Daron Shaw in the Fox News poll, if Whatley wants to win, he needs to strengthen support among non-MAGA Republicans and connect better with less partisan Carolinians. Currently, Cooper holds a significant lead among independents, showing a 60% to 34% preference.
Whatley’s favorability stands at 40% compared to a 46% unfavorable rating, whereas Cooper marks a 54% favorability versus a 44% unfavorability.
The North Carolina race holds crucial importance due to its potential impact on Senate control. Republicans currently have a 53-45 majority. Democrats see flipping the North Carolina seat as one of their few opportunities to reclaim the upper chamber. Conversely, Republicans deem it vital for retaining their lead.
The contest is expected to be among the most competitive during this year’s midterms, following Republican Thom Tillis’s decision not to seek another term.
Federal races in North Carolina have historically been challenging for Democrats, as they have not secured the state at the Senate or presidential level since 2008. Trump narrowly beat then-Vice President Kamala Harris by over three points in North Carolina during the 2024 presidential election.
Current poll findings add to numerous surveys displaying Cooper’s upper hand. His widespread popularity has shifted forecasts in his favor, and Republicans must close enthusiasm gaps to counter Cooper’s advantage in the lead-up to the 2026 midterms.
Additional polls, such as the Public Policy Polling survey, show Cooper at 48% compared to Whatley’s 44%. This survey involved 759 North Carolina voters and has a margin of error of 3.6%. Moreover, a New York Times/Siena University poll puts Cooper ahead by 7 points, with 50% against Whatley’s 43%, surveying 601 likely voters and having a margin error of 4.7%.
The Cook Political Report has categorized the race as ‘lean Democrat.’