Mary Peltola, running against incumbent Dan Sullivan for Alaska’s Senate seat, now leads in polls by a 7 percentage point margin. This comes despite a recent report alleging her abusive behavior toward staff. According to a New York Times/Siena University poll, conducted from September 24 to October 1 with 504 likely voters, Peltola has 50% support compared to Sullivan’s 43%, yielding a +7 margin for the Democrat. The margin of error stands at 5.1 percentage points.
Peltola highlighted this result on social media, noting the progress from the summer. “In June, we were down by 2 points. This month, in the very same poll, we’re up by 7,” she wrote online. If Peltola maintains this lead, she would be Alaska’s first Democratic senator since Mark Begich’s 2014 loss to Sullivan.
Peltola vs. Sullivan: Poll Insights
Previous polls from late September depicted a tight race, with Peltola and Sullivan nearly tied. A Quantus Insight poll (September 28-30) with 758 respondents gave Sullivan 46.1% over Peltola’s 45.5%—a 0.6-point difference within the survey’s eight-point margin of error. Another poll by Republican firm Trafalgar Group (September 22-24) among 1,079 voters placed Sullivan ahead by 1 point, while a co/efficient poll (September 14-17) with 799 participants gave Sullivan a +2 margin. Alaska Survey Research (September 10-12) among 1,352 voters reported a +5 lead for Peltola, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Voters’ Reactions to Allegations
The latest poll, which gives Peltola her largest lead, was conducted after a New York Times article detailing accusations from former and current staff about her alleged conduct. The report, published on September 23, included claims of Peltola using derogatory slurs, which her campaign denied. Former aides and messages reviewed by the Times claimed she used offensive terms historically directed at minority groups. Her campaign argues that she was coping with the deaths of her mother and husband during this period.
Peltola’s spokesperson, Harry Child, stated, “At the time of their passing, Mary was parenting kids through their own grief, serving full-time in the U.S. House of Representatives thousands of miles from home, and running a competitive re-election campaign—all while shouldering the enormous burden of grief.”
Despite the exposé, there is little indication that the report has shifted voter opinions in Sullivan’s favor, according to the poll’s findings.
Current Campaign Dynamics
Sullivan’s campaign has attempted to leverage the exposé, with Last Frontier PAC turning it into a negative ad against Peltola. However, it remains uncertain how this will influence voters. Many liberals have shown support for Peltola as a candidate who could strengthen the Democratic push to control Congress. Political commentator James Carville also rallied around her, criticizing staff who complain about Democrats.
Peltola’s campaign has challenged Sullivan over his financial matters, an aspect of his record that could make him vulnerable. In 2022, he admitted to violating the STOCK Act by failing to disclose his stock trades. Reports from Alaska Current noted that Sullivan is the state delegation’s most active trader, tripling his wealth over his two Senate terms. Peltola supports banning congressional stock trading, and her financial disclosures lack significant stock holdings.
Significance of the Alaska Senate Race in 2026 Midterms
The Alaska Senate race is pivotal as Democrats aim to gain ground, needing to win a net four seats to control the Senate. Alaska has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008 and traditionally votes Republican in presidential elections. However, Peltola’s gains in polls have shifted optimism, backed by her centrist agenda attracting independents and moderate Republicans discontent with Trump-endorsed candidates like Sullivan.
The New York Times/Siena University poll indicates Trump’s declining popularity in Alaska, with 48% of likely voters strongly disapproving of his presidency, compared to 29% strongly approving. This contrasts with previous data, where 43% strongly disapproved in June. Peltola’s rising support coincides with this change.
For further information, contact Newsweek editors Ben Kelly and Cristina Diciu.