The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced the arrival of El Niño in the tropical Pacific, predicting it will intensify in the coming months. This phenomenon will likely result in more extreme weather and elevated global temperatures.
El Niño occurs when trade winds shift, warming the Pacific Ocean and affecting global weather. The impact is significant, amplifying floods and droughts which are worsened by climate change.
The declaration indicates that equatorial Pacific temperatures have remained 0.5 degrees Celsius above average for several months. Atmospheric changes supporting an El Niño have been recorded. NOAA forecasts a 63% chance of temperatures rising 2 degrees Celsius above normal, classifying it as a ‘very strong’ event. Some predictions suggest temperatures could exceed 3 degrees Celsius, the highest ever recorded.
We don’t really have an analog for that, said Malte Stuecker, director of the International Pacific Research Center and associate professor of oceanography at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. In a warming world, that would be pretty catastrophic.
El Niño usually peaks in winter in the northern hemisphere, raising global temperatures through the following year. The previous event coincided with the two hottest years on record, 2023 and 2024.
Historically, major El Niños have had global economic impacts. They increase wet conditions in parts of the Americas but lead to dryness in South and Southeast Asia, Australia, and southern Africa.
The United States could see benefits, including a reduced hurricane season in the Atlantic. Colorado State University has revised its Atlantic hurricane predictions, forecasting the lowest activity since 2015. However, El Niño may also cause high tide flooding and algae blooms along the West Coast.
Globally, poorer countries may face intensified food and drought crises, compounded by existing challenges such as fertilizer shortages and reduced funding for humanitarian aid.
An El Niño means failed rains, dying crops, rising food prices, and families pushed to the edge yet again, said Mohamed Adow, director of the Nairobi-based climate and energy think tank Power Shift. In East Africa, especially, this will land on communities already battered by droughts and floods in recent years.