Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee for the Michigan Senate, expressed his views on Israel this week. He told ABC News that he does not see Israel as a U.S. ally. This statement is the most direct on an issue that has been controversial and might influence his support among Jewish voters. El-Sayed remarked, “An ally that takes your money to push you into wars you shouldn’t be fighting is not an ally.” When asked by ABC News anchor Linsey Davis about his stance on Israel, he responded by drawing a comparison with parenting: “Do you have kids?”
A week prior, El-Sayed shared with MS NOW that Israel had misused American funds for damaging actions. In a past debate, he avoided choosing between Israel and Iran as the greater threat to the U.S. His views on Israel have been under scrutiny since before he won the Democratic primary in August. He defeated U.S. Representative Haley Stevens with significant spending, nearly $30 million, from AIPAC and its affiliates trying to prevent his win. His description of the conflict in Gaza as a “genocide” and his association with left-wing streamer Hasan Piker have provided the Republican nominee, Mike Rogers, with material for criticism, including accusations related to antisemitism.
Impact on Voter Support
The concern now is whether El-Sayed’s strong comments on Israel will affect his support among Jewish voters. The ABC interview quickly drew online criticism. Former Illinois Republican congressman Joe Walsh commented that anyone who doesn’t consider Israel a U.S. ally shouldn’t be in the Senate. Activist Amy Siskind suggested that El-Sayed’s campaign might assume it can succeed without the majority Jewish voter support given Michigan’s demographics.
Michigan has approximately twice as many registered Muslim voters as Jewish voters, based on estimates from the Muslim voter advocacy group Emgage. There are more than 200,000 registered Muslim voters compared to about 105,000 Jewish adults in the state, roughly 1.4 percent of the electorate, according to Brandeis University’s American Jewish Population Project. Republican estimates suggest a Jewish population as high as 130,000.
Demographics and Turnout
Jim Kessler from the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way noted that Michigan has the highest percentage of Arab-American residents in the U.S. He pointed out that the Jewish population is less than half of the Arab-American population. However, he warned that turnout differences could narrow these figures. Jewish voter turnout is high, while Muslim turnout has traditionally lagged. In the 2018 midterms, only half of the registered Muslim voters in Michigan voted.
For context, Michigan Muslim voters largely supported Jill Stein or Donald Trump in 2024, with some abstaining from voting. In Dearborn, where residents of Middle Eastern descent exceeded 55 percent, Trump gained more than 42 percent of the vote. This marked an increase from 30 percent four years earlier. El-Sayed won the August primary by a significant margin in Dearborn and Dearborn Heights, areas with sizable Muslim populations.
Religious Influence in Elections
Rogers aims to capture a substantial portion of the 70,000 Jewish Democrats in Michigan. Winning half would boost his total by about 35,000 votes. This is critical due to his previous loss to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by 19,006 votes in 2024. Any Jewish Democrats switching to Rogers could double the impact by simultaneously reducing support for El-Sayed. Conversely, gaining back previous Muslim voters could help El-Sayed offset any losses among Jewish Democrats.
Gallup’s February survey showed a significant shift among Democratic voters toward the Palestinians, with 65 percent of Democrats siding with them compared to 17 percent with Israelis. This is a marked change from 2014, when 58 percent sympathized with Israelis. The Democratic National Committee’s review of the 2024 election suggested that the Biden administration’s stance on Gaza hurt Vice President Kamala Harris’s support, linking it to the loss of key battleground states.
Jewish and Muslim Voter Dynamics
The Jewish community in Michigan remains divided. While some Jewish Democrats have supported El-Sayed, Republican candidate Rogers has been viewed favorably by others. Letters circulating in the community show mixed endorsements, with some 620 Jewish voters expressing intent to support El-Sayed. Nonetheless, the Jewish Democratic Council of America has yet to endorse him, cautioning that voting Republican supports Trump’s agenda.
El-Sayed has embraced his Muslim identity amid Republican criticisms. His campaign released an ad highlighting his name and background in response to these attacks. Trump has wrongly referred to El-Sayed as “Mohammed” and accused him of being a “jihadist,” while Rogers mentioned El-Sayed’s mother’s historical ties to an organization linked to terrorism. Despite this, neither community votes monolithically, and socially conservative Muslims have allied with Republicans in previous elections.
Ultimately, economic issues dominate voter concerns. A Bridge Michigan survey indicated that, for Detroit-area voters, the economy is the top issue. Both Jewish and Muslim participants expressed fears for their safety, reflecting broader societal tensions. Although religion plays a role, challenges in securing Black voter support may prove more significant for El-Sayed. Black voters constitute a larger portion of Michigan’s electorate compared to Jewish voters.
Current Polling and Projections
El-Sayed leads in recent polls, holding a 2.6-point advantage over Rogers per the RealClearPolitics average, with no Republican Senate win in Michigan since 1994. Pollsters suggest that the race may still narrow. If elected, El-Sayed would become the first Muslim U.S. senator, highlighting the diverse influences in Michigan’s political landscape.