Republican Senator Susan Collins faces increased competition in the 2026 Maine Senate race after former Governor Janet Mills withdrew. The latest poll indicates that progressive Democrat Graham Platner has widened his lead, presenting Democrats with a strong opportunity to gain a Senate seat in Maine. In this state, former Vice President Kamala Harris had previously achieved a 7-point lead in the 2024 elections.
Although Collins has maintained her position in challenging situations due to her popularity and moderate stance, Democrats see former President Donald Trump’s declining approval as a factor that could affect her chances. The race is crucial for Democrats aiming to gain control of the Senate. The latest poll by Pan Atlantic Research is the first since Mills stepped away, making Platner the likely Democratic candidate.
“Polls haven’t been particularly useful in predicting outcomes in our campaigns,” stated Shawn Roderick, Collins’ campaign spokesman, in an interview with Newsweek.
Platner leads Collins by 7 points in the new poll, drawing support from 48% of those surveyed while Collins has 41%. Eleven percent remain undecided. The poll surveyed 827 likely voters from May 8 to May 18, 2026, with a 3.7 percentage point margin of error.
In a previous poll from February to March 2026, Platner led by only four points. The recent data indicates a shift in voter support. Platner is seen favorably by 47% of respondents compared to Collins’ 40% favorability rating. On the unfavorable side, 44% view Platner negatively, while 58% view Collins unfavorably.
Comparison with Other Polls
In other polls, Platner maintains a lead. An Emerson College poll shows Platner ahead with 48% support against Collins’ 41%. This poll surveyed 1,075 likely voters, featuring a 3.1 percentage point margin of error.
Supporters of Collins note that she outperformed polls in her 2020 Senate race. Then, she defeated Sara Gideon with nearly 51% of the vote despite polls showing Gideon leading. Yet, Democrats believe a favorable national climate might affect Collins due to Trump’s disapproval over economic issues.
The Maine People’s Resource Center survey gives Platner a 9-point lead over Collins. It surveyed 1,167 likely voters, with a 2.9 percentage point margin of error.
Prediction Market Insights
Democrats are estimated to have a 70% chance of winning on Kalshi and 73% on Polymarket, indicating favor toward their prospects. These markets assess political outcomes based on real-money wagers, reflecting trader sentiment. However, they are not always predictive of actual results. Forecasts from the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball label the race as a toss-up.
Platner Emerges as Lead Candidate
Following Janet Mills’ departure, Platner stands as the prominent Democrat candidate. Initially leading against Mills in primary polls, Platner has faced scrutiny for past social media interactions and a controversial tattoo. He has since apologized and is planning to have the tattoo removed.
“I do not have the financial resources required for this political campaign,” Mills stated upon suspending her campaign.
Some Democrats worry about Platner’s statewide candidacy potential due to his past controversies, fearing it might alienate moderate voters.
Democratic Strategy in Maine
Maine is viewed as a prime target for flipping a Senate seat. Historically, midterms often see losses for the president’s party, and Trump’s approval ratings have decreased due to economic concerns. Only 38% of Mainers view Trump favorably now.
Despite challenges, Collins remains a strong candidate. In 2020, she won against Gideon even with the state’s Democratic lean. Now, Democrats must win four seats in the midterms to regain a Senate majority, as Republicans currently have a 53-47 majority. Besides Maine, Democrats are eyeing North Carolina and other traditionally conservative states like Alaska and Texas to achieve this goal.