Colombia is heading to the polls this Sunday in an election fraught with polarization. The outcome could significantly impact the country’s ties with the United States, its stance towards Venezuela, and its approach to drug trafficking and armed groups.
Key Candidates: Cepeda vs. De La Espriella
The contest has narrowed to two main contenders: left-wing Senator Ivan Cepeda and hard-right outsider Abelardo De La Espriella. Cepeda, who represents continuity from President Gustavo Petro, faces De La Espriella’s rapid political emergence.
Polling indicates neither candidate is likely to achieve a first-round majority, increasing the likelihood of a June runoff.
Polls and Market Predictions
De La Espriella’s rise has been noteworthy. While he started at 1.1% in March 2025, he climbed significantly by early 2026, drawing nearly equal support to Cepeda. The latest Invamer survey places Cepeda at 44.6% and De La Espriella at 31.6%, with Paloma Valencia trailing at 14%.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi favor De La Espriella, giving him a 59% chance of winning. This split reflects the potential for De La Espriella to secure right-wing votes in a runoff.
The Election’s Significance
Colombia holds a strategic role in Latin America for the United States. Over two decades, counter-narcotics and security cooperation have been central. Under Petro, relations have been strained due to disagreements over drug and regional policies.
A win for De La Espriella could improve relations with President Donald Trump’s administration, while a Cepeda win might sustain current tensions.
Cepeda’s Continuity Campaign
At 56, Ivan Cepeda is a seasoned player in Colombia’s progressive movement. As a member of the Historic Pact coalition, he pledges to continue Petro’s policies, with a focus on social programs and peace talks.
His disciplined approach may be seen as both an asset and a challenge. Many Colombians are uneasy with persistent insecurity and stagnant economic growth under Petro’s policies.
De La Espriella: The Outsider
Abelardo De La Espriella, aged 54, is a corporate lawyer with zero political experience. His anti-establishment stance likens him to Argentina’s Javier Milei and El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele. His crime-focused campaign, emphasizing tough security measures, appeals to right-wing voters.
De La Espriella’s legal history attracts controversy, notably his past work for Alex Saab, accused of laundering money for Venezuela. Yet, he defends his role as a lawyer’s duty.
Paloma Valencia’s Decline
Initially the conservative frontrunner with support from former President Álvaro Uribe, Valencia has dropped in the race. De La Espriella’s consolidation of anti-Petro voters leaves her behind in polls.
Probable Runoff
Most forecasts indicate a likely second-round face-off between Cepeda and De La Espriella. Invamer shows Cepeda as the perceived leader in such a scenario, but many voters remain undecided.
This runoff will offer voters a stark choice: the continuation of Petro’s policies with Cepeda or a new direction with De La Espriella.
Petro’s Impact on the Election
This election is seen by many as a referendum on Petro’s presidency. Supporters highlight achievements like reduced poverty and unemployment. Critics, however, point to security issues and high coca production.
Petro’s approach, particularly the ‘Paz Total’ negotiation strategy, faces scrutiny for escalating coca and cocaine production. This election could either extend Petro’s legacy or bring drastic changes to Colombia’s course.