State Representative Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, faces a close contest against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, the candidate favored by the party establishment, in the gubernatorial primary in Wisconsin. The race is still too close to conclude, with Crowley leading Hong by roughly 2,000 votes, or 0.4 percent, with 98 percent of votes counted as of 2 a.m. local time. Both candidates are awaiting final ballot counts before deciding on their next moves. A margin of less than 1 percent allows the losing candidate to request a recount.
Election officials reported just before midnight that approximately 28,000 absentee ballots from Milwaukee, which might determine the race’s outcome, were delayed due to an error. Paulina Gutiérrez, the executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission, attributed the issue to human error and stated the results would likely be posted by early Wednesday.
“We have built something that will change politics forever,” Hong expressed to supporters late on Tuesday. “The work we have done will be remembered. I know we don’t have the final results right now, but we are ready to keep fighting.”
The Crowley campaign remained hopeful, stating early Wednesday, “We feel optimistic, but it’s not over until the votes are counted.” The primary winner will face Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany in November in an election that could challenge the strength of progressive politics in this pivotal state.
Democrats aim to leverage President Donald Trump’s low approval ratings among Wisconsin voters to maintain the governor’s office and potentially flip both legislative chambers, achieving full control of the state’s government for the first time since 2010.
Crowded Field Narrowed to Two
The decision by Democratic Governor Tony Evers not to pursue a third term created a crowded race to succeed him. Tiffany, with Trump’s endorsement, won the Republican primary with minimal opposition. However, the Democratic race thinned to a choice between Hong and Crowley. After initially dropping out of the race in early July, Crowley resumed his campaign less than two weeks later due to Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez ending her run amid a financial scandal. Evers then endorsed Crowley.
Party leaders worry that Hong’s victory may facilitate a win for Tiffany in November. Her platform could prove challenging to sell to moderate and independent voters, whose support is crucial in this swing state known for narrow election outcomes. Although Hong has galvanized left-wing voters, major national progressives such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Bernie Sanders have not endorsed her, despite backing other progressive nominees like Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
“My focus has been on winning back Congress and putting us in the best position to win the Senate,” Ocasio-Cortez said on ABC’s This Week, explaining why she hasn’t supported Hong.
Polling Missed Crowley’s Strength
Polls considerably underestimated Crowley’s appeal. Most public surveys depicted Hong as the frontrunner. State Navigate’s final survey, collected from 1,473 likely Democratic primary voters between August 3 and 6, gave Hong a 22-point lead over Crowley, with 44 percent support compared to Crowley’s 22 percent. State Senator Kelda Roys and nonprofit executive Joel Brennan had 11 percent and 5 percent, respectively, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
Other recent polls indicated Hong’s strong lead. She led five straight Marquette University Law School polls, with the most recent showing her at 38 percent support, followed by former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes at 16 percent. Crowley had 7 percent support in this poll, with 34 percent undecided.
This story is developing and more updates will follow.