Dr. Ariel Kalil, a professor of public policy at the University of Chicago, and Dr. Derek Rury, an assistant professor of economics at Oregon State University, highlight a growing issue in the education system. Many parents in the United States, nearly nine out of ten, believe their child is performing at or above grade level in reading and math. This perception is often inaccurate.
Actual proficiency rates, as revealed by the National Assessment of Educational Progress (N.A.E.P.), indicate that only 30 percent of eighth graders are proficient in reading, with 28 percent in math. The discrepancy between school grades and standardized test results is notably high in schools with significant numbers of low-income students. A study in 2023 revealed this widening gap.
The situation has deteriorated over the past 15 years due to grade inflation. From 2010 to 2022, there was a marked increase in average high school grade-point averages, particularly in math, which rose from 3.02 to 3.32.
Standardized testing, a crucial independent measure for schools, faces challenges as well. Federal law requires annual standardized tests in math and reading for grades three through eight. Yet many states have reduced the score required to deem a child “proficient.” As a result, gains on paper appear substantial without actual classroom improvements.
For example, Wisconsin redesigned its assessment, raising English proficiency from 39 percent to 48 percent. Illinois and Kansas have made similar adjustments. In over half of the states, proficiency rates on state reading tests surpass those on national tests by 15 percentage points or more. In certain states, the gap is even wider.
Changes at the federal level exacerbated these issues. The Education Department, which manages the national test, experienced significant budget cuts in 2025 under the Trump administration. While some efforts to rebuild the agency are underway, certain assessments have already seen reductions.