In Dubai, United Arab Emirates, the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement on Monday. The agreement aims to extend their fragile ceasefire and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, significant challenges remain, such as whether Israel will continue its offensive in Lebanon.
Details of the agreement have not been immediately released. Implementation is expected only upon its signing, which a key mediator, Pakistan, indicated would occur on Friday in Geneva. Until then, shipping in the strait, a crucial passage for the world’s oil and gas, is likely to remain restricted. Its closure has prompted a global energy crisis.
Israel’s Defense Minister stated on Monday that the country would not withdraw from occupied lands in Lebanon, where Israel is engaged against Hezbollah, supported by Iran. Israel and the U.S. launched the war on February 28, yet Israel is not part of this agreement. A spokesperson from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel would continue to defend itself against any threats to its security. This stance could derail the agreement, as Iran has insisted that any end to the war must include halting the fighting in Lebanon.
The agreement also faces other significant issues. It outlines only 60 days to decide on the management of Iran’s highly enriched uranium reserves and its atomic program. The U.S. and Israel fear it could be used to build a nuclear weapon, despite Tehran’s insistence that it is peaceful. This issue took years to resolve in Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. Former President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from that agreement in his first term, setting the stage for the current tensions.
Despite the uncertainty, leaders from Europe to China have welcomed the agreement to end a conflict that has killed thousands across the Middle East, including top leaders of Iran’s theocracy, and driven up fuel, food, and other goods prices well beyond the region. However, concerns remain about the agreement’s realization. Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel noted that “a lot is left to Friday.”
Trump, under pressure to end the war before the midterm elections in November, celebrated the agreement on social media, stating he had authorized the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the end of the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. He later clarified that the strait would not open until Friday.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, confirmed the agreement on state television but said Iran would not start implementing it until it is signed.
Early in the war, Iranian attacks on ships nearly halted traffic in the crucial waterway. Trump’s response was to impose a blockade. Before the war, a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas passed through the strait, and the closure, along with the blockade, spiked fuel prices, with ripple effects throughout the global economy. Experts suggest that energy companies may take months to resume operations to meet global demand.
Iranian and American officials will hold preparatory meetings this week in Doha, Qatar, before the signing, according to a diplomat with direct knowledge of the talks, who spoke anonymously to discuss the closed-door meetings.
The success of the agreement at least partially hinges on what transpires between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel’s bombing of southern Beirut suburbs on Sunday nearly derailed negotiations, and a prior attack led Iran to fire upon Israel, prompting an Israeli response.
Israel’s Defense Minister, Israel Katz, indicated his country plans to remain “indefinitely” in the territories it controls in Lebanon, Syria, and the Gaza Strip. Katz also threatened that if Iran attacks Israel due to Israeli strikes in Lebanon, Israel will retaliate against Iran with “great force.” In the past two and a half years, Israel has seized areas in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria totaling 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles).
In response to questions about Israel’s stance regarding the agreement, David Mencer, a spokesperson from Netanyahu’s office, told The Associated Press that Israel and the U.S. remain fully aligned in preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. He also added that Israel will not tolerate attacks from Hezbollah on its territory and will continue to act against those who seek to harm its citizens. Hezbollah has not yet commented on the agreement.
Associated Press journalists Munir Ahmed in Islamabad, Will Weissert in Washington, Julia Frankel in Jerusalem, Abby Sewell in Beirut, Najib Jobain in Doha, Qatar, and Melanie Lidman in Tel Aviv, Israel, contributed to this report.