The Atlantic basin might see its first hurricane-free season in over a century, according to AccuWeather forecasters. If no hurricanes form before the end of the season, this will mark a historic event.
Federal meteorologists announced this week that El Niño is expected to intensify through year’s end. The likelihood that El Niño becomes a powerful phenomenon during fall and winter exceeds 90 percent, influencing earlier predictions of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season.
Understanding El Niño and Its Impact on Hurricanes
El Niño represents the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a repeating Pacific climate pattern affecting global weather. La Niña is the cycle’s cool counterpart.
Common effects of El Niño include stormier weather across Southern U.S., drier conditions in some northern regions, and altered hurricane activity.
“El Niño conditions are linked to fewer tropical storms and hurricanes, particularly in the western Atlantic,” explained Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s expert for seasonal hurricane prediction, in a conversation with Newsweek. “Conversely, El Niño supports more activity in eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons.”
Record-breaking Potential for Atlantic Hurricane Season
By September 10, the climatological peak, no Atlantic hurricanes had emerged, AccuWeather informed Newsweek. Meteorologists report limited chances of development before September ends.
“Missing a hurricane during the year’s most active month proves this season’s uniqueness,” expressed Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s hurricane lead, via email. “Robust El Niño conditions sustain disruptive wind shear throughout the basin, and we anticipate steadfastness in this pattern till September closes.”
The Atlantic encountered only two hurricane-free seasons before: 1907 and 1914. Both occurred before the satellite era, when technology advanced storm identification and monitoring.
AccuWeather noted the latest first hurricane from the satellite era formed on September 11, both in 2002 and 2013. Any hurricane forming after this date would establish a new record.
Five named storms appeared this year, but none achieved hurricane strength due to persistent wind shear, dry air, and persistent Saharan dust plumes, AccuWeather reported.
AccuWeather warned that despite no hurricane formations, tropical storms and rainstorms, bringing flooding, damaging winds, rough surf, and disruptions, can still emerge.
The season continues through November 30. If no hurricane forms in September, the following opportunities for the first occurrence would be in October or November, when tropical activity usually declines.
Since 1966, around 24 percent of Atlantic hurricanes formed post-September. During El Niño, the figure decreases to 19 percent, AccuWeather stated.
According to Nicholas Arman, AccuWeather meteorologist, heightened wind shear becomes a key barrier to tropical development late in the year. An active jet stream can cause southward dips, increasing shear within the basin, while early cold fronts may cool ocean waters. Additionally, reduced solar energy shifts to the Southern Hemisphere hindering storms from forming and strengthening in the Atlantic’s primary development region.
For queries, contact Newsweek editors Ben Kelly and James Debens on this subject.