President Donald Trump’s net approval rating in the Midwest decreased by five points in a month, according to Emerson College Polling. This decline aligns with a national disapproval peak during his second term.
Republican candidates in key U.S. Senate races are facing challenges over rural dissatisfaction linked to fuel costs, the Iran war, and a controversial beef-import policy. Emerson’s September survey highlighted the Iran conflict, jobs, and tariff policies as top voter concerns for midterms. Voters in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Ohio might decide if regional dissatisfaction with Trump affects broader GOP support.
Trump-backed Iowa Republican Ashley Hinson opposes increased beef imports and calls for the end of the Iran war while running for an open Senate seat. White House spokesman Davis Ingle mentioned to Newsweek that the 2024 election is the ‘ultimate poll’, with nearly 80 million Americans supporting Trump’s agenda. Ingle emphasized Trump’s progress on jobs, inflation, and housing, asserting that more results would appear as policies are implemented. Newsweek reached out to the White House for additional comments on Friday morning.
Midwestern Political Landscape
Trump carried Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio in 2024, facing a close contest in Michigan, making any regional decline significant. Emerson’s August poll showed Trump’s 43 percent approval with 52 percent disapproval among Midwestern likely voters, resulting in a net rating of -9. By September, his approval decreased to 42 percent, with disapproval rising to 56 percent, worsening his deficit to -14 points. This change is attributed more to increased opposition than sudden support loss. Given the smaller sample size of the Midwest in national polls, the results should be viewed as warning signs rather than conclusive trends.
Rising National Disapproval
National trends mirror regional results. Emerson’s September poll recorded Trump’s national approval at 39 percent and disapproval at 58 percent, marking a 19-point deficit—the highest disapproval recorded during his second term. These surveys involved 1,000 likely voters, with a 3 percent margin of error. Data collection occurred from August 16-17 and September 21-22, using probability-based panels interviewed via text-to-web, with results weighted by demographics and region.
Political Tensions in Iowa
In Iowa, Hinson and Democratic state Representative Josh Turek compete to succeed retiring Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Hinson, serving her third term in the House, criticized Trump’s beef import decision, highlighting concerns in a state with a major cattle industry. Turek, a Paralympic gold medalist, offers Democrats a candidate with appeal beyond party lines. Polls indicate a competitive race, with different polls showing varying leads.
Fuel Prices and Economic Concerns
Rising fuel prices add to political pressures. Hinson demanded relief measures, including gas-tax suspension and immediate end to the Iran war. Higher fuel prices impact agriculture and transportation, affecting voters’ costs. Emerson found 41 percent of national voters prioritized the economy, with significant concern over the Iran war, jobs, and tariffs.
Impact on Midwest Senate Races
Kansas emerges as a surprising battleground. Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton holds 45 percent over Republican Senator Roger Marshall’s 43 percent, signaling a rare competitive race. In Michigan, Democratic physician Abdul El-Sayed competes closely with Republican Mike Rogers, with El-Sayed leading by two points. Ohio sees Republican Jon Husted face off against former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
The Midwest’s approval shift is critical. Republicans face the risk of losing voter engagement; even minor defections could influence tightly contested races.
Reporters John Fitzpatrick and Anthony Murray, along with AI assistant Martyn, contributed to this story. Contact Newsweek editors for further information.