Trump-Backed DiLorenzo Triumphs in New Hampshire
President Donald Trump’s endorsement helped candidate Anthony DiLorenzo secure victory in the Republican primary for New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. DiLorenzo defeated Hollie Noveletsky, a former vice chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, with 51.5% of the vote compared to Noveletsky’s 26.8%, as reported by The Associated Press.
Trump’s endorsements in recent Republican primaries have shown mixed outcomes. Although his backing carries weight, it does not guarantee victory for the candidates. DiLorenzo’s win highlights Trump’s sustained popularity among GOP voters, despite a recent poll from the University of New Hampshire showing Noveletsky had a 3-point edge over DiLorenzo.
Trump’s Endorsement Track Record
Trump openly supported DiLorenzo, a local businessman, praising him as an “America First Patriot” on his Truth Social platform. Trump has endorsed numerous candidates across the country ahead of the midterms, achieving a 96% success rate in primaries according to Ballotpedia.
However, not all Trump-endorsed candidates have succeeded. In Tennessee’s 5th District, Trump-backed Andy Ogles lost to Charlie Hatcher, supported by Governor Bill Lee. In Florida’s 19th District, Catalina Lauf lost to Jim Schwartzel. Trump’s favored candidate in Michigan’s 8th District, Amir Hassan, lost to Thomas J. Smith.
Several Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidates have faltered, including Burt Jones in Georgia and Pamela Evette in South Carolina. Despite these losses, Trump’s endorsement holds value due to his popularity among Republican primary voters.
Approval Ratings and Electoral Influence
Recent polls show Trump’s national approval rating has declined, standing at -24 points according to a survey by YouGov and The Economist, with 36% approving and 60% disapproving. Among Republicans, his net approval remains strong at +62 points with 80% approval.
Future Prospects in NH-01
Predictions suggest Democrats may retain New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District. The seat is currently held by Democrat Chris Pappas, running for Senate. Forecasts from platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket favor Democrats with an 88-89% chance of victory.
Democrats are bolstered by the district’s preference shown in the 2024 election, where Kamala Harris won by over 2 points. Yet, Republicans aim to challenge expectations, citing competitive races for Governor and Senate. New Hampshire’s 1st District is known for its competitiveness, including areas like Manchester and the Lakes Region that offer varied voter preferences.
Chris Pappas has maintained strong electoral performances historically, winning past elections by significant margins. Current forecasters from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continue to favor Democrats in the upcoming race.