James Talarico is gaining traction in the Texas Senate race, once seen as a Republican stronghold. Prediction markets and election forecasters are now labeling the contest as competitive.
Kalshi, a market for predictions, currently gives Democratic State Representative Talarico a 59% chance of winning in November. In contrast, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton’s chances are at 41%. Polymarket reflects similar figures, with Talarico at 60% and Paxton at 41%. Prediction market shares sometimes exceed 100% due to market spreads.
Fox News’ Power Rankings have moved the Texas Senate race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-Up.” The Cook Political Report also has reclassified it as a “Toss-Up,” upgrading from “Lean Republican.”
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin model now lists Texas as “Lean Democrat,” giving Talarico approximately a 70% chance of victory, compared to Paxton’s 30%. Silver noted Texas’ Republican history, but cited Paxton’s scandals and Talarico’s fundraising as factors tipping the balance slightly toward Democrats. Polling evidence supports this shift.
Recent polling suggests competitiveness. RealClearPolling aggregates surveys, showing Talarico at 47.6% and Paxton at 45%.
Newsweek contacted both campaigns for comments via email outside regular hours and is awaiting responses.
Spelling Blunder on Social Media
The competitive race has led to exchanges between candidates both on the trail and online. Talarico recently highlighted a spelling error by Paxton in a deleted post, misnaming Cypress as “Cyprus,” a Mediterranean island. Talarico remarked, “It’s Cypress, not ‘Cyprus.’ But given your European vacations, it’s no surprise you confuse it.”
Prospects of a Democratic Win
A Talarico victory would mark the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988. Republicans have dominated presidential elections there since 1980. Despite Texas’ Republican lean, Talarico contests with vigor against Paxton, who defeated Senator John Cornyn in a primary runoff.
Aligned with former President Donald Trump, Paxton faces a challenging campaign. Talarico, branding himself as a faith-driven, practical Democrat, focuses on affordability and economic issues.
Paxton’s campaign bears the weight of controversies, including a 2023 impeachment and acquittal, resolved fraud charges, and allegations of bribery and corruption. He acknowledges an extramarital affair but denies any wrongdoing.
For further insights, Newsweek’s John Fitzpatrick and James Debens edited this report.