Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton ended the summer focusing on young voters in his U.S. Senate race. However, a new poll indicates a shift away from his campaign among this demographic. According to the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Paxton 76 percent to 18 percent among likely voters under 35. This marks a significant increase from July when Talarico led 59 percent to 29 percent.
The change translates to a 17-point gain for Talarico while Paxton’s support dropped by 11 points, increasing his deficit with young voters from 30 to 58 points. This race, aiming to find a replacement for Senator John Cornyn who lost the Republican nomination to Paxton, remains one of the most closely contested Senate races.
Overall, the Barbara Jordan Center poll shows Talarico at 47 percent, Paxton at 46 percent, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent, and 4 percent undecided. The survey, conducted with 1,800 likely voters from September 15 to 19, has a margin of error of 2.31 percentage points.
If Talarico wins, he would become the first Democrat to secure a statewide election in Texas in over thirty years. Both campaigns did not respond to email requests for comments.
Challenges in Courting Gen Z
Paxton’s efforts to win over young voters included launching 11 ‘Students for Paxton’ chapters across Texas colleges by August 31. Yet the numbers have not favored him since. A previous survey indicated 5 percent of voters under 35 supported Brown, and 7 percent were undecided. By mid-September, Brown’s share among this group fell to 1 percent, and undecided voters dropped to 5 percent, with the majority shifting toward Talarico.
Talarico has effectively engaged this demographic through online platforms popular with young men, an audience challenging for Democrats to maintain. Political strategist Mike Madrid credits Talarico’s approach for his growing national profile, stating his presence on such platforms resonates well.
This pattern is not confined to the Senate race. Among voters under 35, Democrat Gina Hinojosa now leads Governor Greg Abbott 71 percent to 21 percent. Similarly, Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin leads Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick 65 percent to 18 percent among the same group.
The number of younger voters (18 to 34) sampled in the September poll was 14 percent, down from 18 percent in July. This subgroup’s results carry more uncertainty than the overall findings.
Impact of Talarico’s Messaging
Paxton has longstanding connections with young conservative voices online. In 2023, he leveraged Gen Z social media figures to counter his potential impeachment, with allegations suggesting influencers were paid $50 to share specific posts from his social media accounts.
Talarico’s rising support among young voters aligns with shifts in his public positions. In May 2021, he opposed legislation barring transgender athletes from teams aligned with their gender identity, yet recently voiced safety and fairness concerns regarding trans athletes on certain sports teams.
Talarico’s stance on energy issues has also evolved. Although his campaign platform still encompasses fighting climate change, it now emphasizes an ‘all-of-the-above’ energy approach, supporting the oil and gas sectors.
Republican critics argue these shifts indicate unreliability, suggesting Talarico might revert to progressive stances in Congress. Paxton recently remarked at the Republican National Committee’s convention that Talarico seems overly focused on transitions, a statement Talarico contends is untrue to his positioning.
Madrid observes Talarico’s strategy has aimed for a centrist appeal since his primary campaign against Representative Jasmine Crockett, who ran on a more progressive agenda.
The latest poll reflects Talarico’s moderate appeal among Republicans, with 27 percent of the party’s moderate wing indicating support for him. Although this faction represents 15 percent of the Republican likely voters, Paxton retains strong backing among the majority, especially those identifying with the MAGA movement where 98 percent support him.
What the Latest Polls Indicate
The Barbara Jordan Center survey is consistent with a series of other polls conducted in September, all showing Talarico leading, mostly within margins of error. The Trafalgar Group found Talarico ahead 46 percent to 45 percent among 1,079 likely voters during September 15 to 17.
However, Republican strategist Alex Patton advises caution in interpreting Talarico’s strength as a broader Democratic trend in Texas. Patton suggests Talarico’s unique candidacy, not the Democrat’s platform, is generating momentum.
The poll indicates Paxton’s strength lies among older voters; he leads 57 percent to 37 percent among those 55 and older and maintains an advantage among white voters. Conversely, Talarico attracts Latino voters (57 percent to 38 percent) and Black voters (87 percent to 10 percent).
Historically, older voters dominate midterm elections in Texas. In 2022, individuals under 49 constituted just 41 percent of the total turnout, reinforcing the expected diminutive impact of younger voters in the upcoming elections.
Outlook on the Election
The Cook Political Report categorizes Texas as one of seven Senate toss-ups in the upcoming election cycle, joined by states like Alaska and Ohio. Due to heightened competition, this race has seen significant spending. Republican-aligned groups reserve $47.2 million in ad buys compared to $6.4 million for Democrats. By the end of June, Talarico had $21.5 million in available campaign funds, contrasting with Paxton’s $1.8 million.
While Democrats find favorable conditions in Texas for the upcoming elections, a victory remains uncertain given Texas’ historically challenging landscape for the party.
Texans will cast their votes on November 3.