Children play on the Mexico-U.S. border wall in Playas de Tijuana, Mexico, on May 10. Border security is a prominent theme in Republican ads during the 2026 midterm campaign. Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images hide caption toggle caption Joseph Prezioso/AFP via Getty Images
Republican Strategy on Immigration
Republicans are emphasizing immigration enforcement as a key issue in their midterm election strategy. An analysis of advertisement data by NPR and AdImpact indicates that Republicans are investing more in immigration-related ads compared to Democrats.
From January to June, before incidents involving immigration enforcement officers in Maine and Texas, Republicans have surpassed Democrats in the number of immigration-focused ads. Republicans produced nearly 300 ads, while Democrats produced 62 ads.
Comparative Ad Spending
The data highlights significant ad investments by Republicans. A $928,000 ad aired in the Michigan governor’s race proclaimed the waste and fraud associated with illegal immigration. Candidate Perry Johnson vowed support for ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement).
In previous elections, themes like enhancing border security and reducing crime have been effective for Republicans. Cameron Shelton, a political economy professor at Claremont McKenna College, explains that campaigns aim to shape election issues and energize their voter base.
Immigration’s Role in Campaigns
During the primary season, which is largely over, parties concentrate on galvanizing support. The primary campaign has become decisive due to a significant number of safe seats.
Some Democrats became vocal about immigration early in the year, especially in states experiencing heightened enforcement. Candidates in New Jersey, Illinois, and Minnesota criticized administrative tactics and called to abolish ICE. However, Democrats soon shifted focus to other issues like healthcare.
Ad Spending and Strategy
Republicans have outspent Democrats on immigration-related ads by approximately $36 million between January and June. These ads, costing a total of $53 million, aired across 88 races in 27 states. Meanwhile, Democratic spending reached $17 million across 20 races in 11 states.
Mike Marinella of the National Republican Congressional Committee links immigration to key issues like border security, crime, and the economy, asserting its relevance to voters and candidates alike.
Republican Ads in Detail
Keywords such as “securing the border” are common in Republican ads, often discussing border wall funding and crime. In Florida’s 19th congressional district, a $880,000 ad campaign targeted birthright citizenship.
Democratic Messaging Approach
Democratic ads focus less on specific policy proposals and more on advocating for pro-immigrant stances. Criticisms of votes on immigration funding and appeals to personal immigration stories are frequent themes.
Frank Sharry of Third Way predicts Democrats will refine their immigration stance, focusing more on winning the immigration argument than on spending heavily on ads.
Polling and Public Opinion
According to a Gallup poll from July, most Americans view immigration favorably, with many supporting pathways to citizenship over deportation. There are, however, stark partisan differences.
Republican ads, focusing on employing more Border Patrol agents and opposing sanctuary cities, are prevalent in pivotal races across states like Ohio, Texas, and New York.
Advertising in Modern Campaigns
Strategists caution about overinterpreting ad data to predict election outcomes. Frank Sharry points out the variety of information streams available to the public, beyond traditional advertising, influence voter perceptions.