DES MOINES, Iowa — House Republicans are focusing on Iowa to maintain their majority in Congress. Iowa, won by President Donald Trump by 13 points in November 2024, has shifted red in recent years. Yet, Republicans face challenges in defending three of its four congressional districts as Democratic prospects rise.
Republicans view public polls skeptically, considering them tools used by media and Democrats to discourage GOP voters. The party insists that voter turnout will determine the outcome. During a meeting in Dubuque, Iowa, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn., emphasized the importance of Republican participation, stating, “Nobody knows what’s going to happen on November 3. But I’m here to tell you, if our people show up, we win. If our people don’t show up … then we’re going to be scratching and clawing to hang on to every inch that we’ve got.”
Fox News Digital accompanied Emmer along with other House Republicans on a two-district tour in Iowa. As the No. 3 House GOP leader, he attended events for congressional candidate Joe Mitchell in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District and a fundraiser for Rep. Zach Nunn, R-Iowa. At these events, Emmer challenged the notion of growing Democratic advantage depicted in polls while underlining the necessity of Republican voter turnout.
Emmer explained, “Republicans do not like to participate in surveys. We are very suspicious of the people who are giving the information to and the databases they’re putting us in. By the way, there are Republicans who answer these surveys who may tell exactly the opposite of what they actually stand on, because again, we don’t trust them.”
Fox News Power Rankings indicate that three of Iowa’s four congressional districts are competitive, with Nunn’s district and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ district leaning Democratic. The district vacated by retiring Rep. Ashley Hinson is considered a “toss-up.”
Concern arises among Republicans due to Trump’s low approval ratings and unpopular policies. Factors such as high living costs and gas prices echo past concerns of a 2018-style blue wave. Specific policies impacting Iowa include Trump’s tariffs and foreign beef imports. Agriculture in Iowa faces increased costs due to tariffs and repercussions from Trump’s trade disputes with China.
To counter the impact, Trump proposed a $15 billion steel plant in Lee County, Iowa. Though, both Nunn and Mitchell remain optimistic about their campaigns. Mitchell, highlighting his outreach efforts, proclaimed, “We have the hardest workers on the ballot.” Nunn reinforced Iowa’s significance by stating, “Not only is Iowa at the front line of the entire country when it comes to making sure we’ve got three competitive House seats, Des Moines, Iowa, the third district, our proud district, is now one of the most competitive in the country.”
Despite national challenges related to Trump, mobilizing his supporters could be crucial for Republicans to maintain House control. Recently, Trump contacted Nunn to express commitment to Iowa. Trump plans a rally in Sioux City, located in Iowa’s only secure Republican district, stressing the importance of each state’s role in the midterms.
Emmer, discussing the midterms, noted, “This midterm, to me, will come down to about 10 seats. Everybody talks about 20-plus. No. It’s going to be a very narrow end, and for Republicans, Iowa is a great example. If the Republicans come out to vote, we’re going to be just fine.”
With predictions indicating a decision based on about 10 seats, Iowa’s districts could significantly impact outcomes. The consensus among Republicans acknowledges turnout as a decisive factor. As emphasized by a GOP operative, “There is no in-between. If Republican voters turn out to the polls, there’s hope. If not, it’s going to be bad.”
Elizabeth Elkind covers politics for Fox News Digital, focusing on the House of Representatives. Her previous work has been featured in Daily Mail and CBS News.