Republican Representative Tom Kean Jr. from New Jersey is experiencing declining prospects in the upcoming general election. His extended medical leave without detailed explanation has contributed to this situation. Forecasts indicate Kean’s prior slight lead in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District has diminished, turning the race into a toss-up.
Kean has been absent for more than 100 votes in Congress, last publicly seen on March 5. In April, he mentioned on X that he was dealing with a “personal medical issue.” Despite running unopposed for the Republican nomination in Tuesday’s primary, the Democrats field several candidates, hoping to seize the seat.
Newsweek contacted Kean’s campaign for comments outside normal hours but received no response.
Polling and Betting Odds
According to Polymarket, the Democratic Party currently holds a 75 percent chance of winning the seat, while the Republican Party has 14 percent odds. As of February 26, one week before Kean’s last public appearance, Republicans, represented by Kean, had a 46 percent chance against the Democrats’ 43 percent.
On March 5, Democratic odds rose to 55 percent, with Republicans in the mid-40s.Kalshi shows Democrats with a 78 percent chance and Republicans with 22 percent as of Tuesday midday. In early March, these odds were 59 percent for Democrats and nearly 46 percent for Republicans, indicating Kean’s support has waned.
Four Democrats Competing in Primary
In Tuesday’s primary, four Democrats are vying for the nomination: Michael Roth, Rebecca Bennett, Brian Varela, and Tina Shah. An internal poll by 314 Action Fund, supporting Shah, showed her with a slight lead over Kean in a hypothetical general election. Shah leads 46 percent to Kean’s 43 percent among those surveyed. After providing additional positive candidate information, her lead expanded to 49 percent. The survey took place from May 24–26 without a disclosed margin of error.
Analysts expected a close race, with the Cook Political Report shifting the race from “Lean Republican” to “Toss-up” in November 2025, reflecting the district’s competitive nature.
Kean’s Continued Absence
Kean’s office cites a “personal health matter,” offering no clear return date. Opponents insist on more transparency for the constituents. Kean last voted on March 5 for the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act. Though Congress took a recess, Kean did not resume attendance when sessions restarted March 16.
On April 27, Kean reassured constituents via X: “I want to thank my constituents and colleagues for their patience as I address a personal medical issue. My doctors continue to assure me of a complete recovery, enabling my return to the job I love soon.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson spoke with Kean on April 23, affirming Kean’s dedication and expectation to return to full capacity soon.
Democratic Campaign Focus
Democrats are using Kean’s absence as a campaign focal point, questioning district representation. New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District covers a large section across the state’s northern and central areas, including Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster. President Donald Trump narrowly won the district in the 2024 election.
The district shifted between Republican Leonard Lance and Democrat Tom Malinowski in recent midterm elections. Kean defeated Malinowski in 2022. Following the 2021 census, boundaries were redrawn to favor Republicans. Post-primary, the general election is set for November 3, 2026.