A recent poll places Democrat Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya in a tight race for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat. Flanagan holds a narrow lead with 44 percent compared to Tafoya’s 42 percent among likely voters. This two-point difference puts the candidates in a statistical tie, highlighting the potential competitiveness as the November midterms approach.
The poll, conducted by TIPP/League of American Workers from August 31 to September 2, surveyed 1,201 likely voters. It found 4 percent supporting other candidates, with 2 percent undecided on a candidate and 8 percent unsure. This survey follows the recent party nominations of both candidates, preparing them for the general election for the seat vacated by Democratic Senator Tina Smith. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percent.
The League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group led by former Trump adviser Steve Cortes, is not officially linked to the Republican Party. Meanwhile, midterm elections often test the political conditions facing the ruling party, as historically, the president’s party tends to lose seats. Republicans currently hold a slim majority in both the House and Senate. The Cook Political Report currently rates the Minnesota Senate race as leaning Democratic. Kamala Harris won the state by around 4 points in the 2024 presidential election against Donald Trump.
“Michele Tafoya would be nothing but a loyal soldier to Donald Trump. She supports his ICE and mass deportation agenda that led to two Minnesotans being killed, defended January 6 rioters who assaulted police officers and tried to overturn a free and fair election, and supports Trump’s reckless tariffs that are hammering farmers and driving up prices for everyone. Tafoya even told Minnesotans to just ‘keep a stiff upper lip’ with the higher prices due to Trump’s illegal war in Iran and praised the One Big Beautiful Bill that is ripping health care away from hundreds of thousands of Minnesotans,” stated Lexi Byler, a spokesperson for the Flanagan campaign.
“Michele Tafoya is fighting for what Trump wants, Peggy Flanagan is fighting for what working families need – Minnesotans know that and it’s why they will choose Peggy Flanagan in November,” Byler concluded.
Newsweek also sought comments from Tafoya’s campaign. Tafoya responded on X, emphasizing the competitive nature of the race and her criticisms of Flanagan’s record: “Our race is in play! Minnesotans are fed up with billions in taxpayer dollars being stolen while the people in charge refuse to take responsibility. Peggy Flanagan is the sitting lieutenant governor while criminals were stealing billions from Minnesota taxpayers. She doesn’t get to walk away from that record. Minnesotans deserve accountability. They deserve leadership. And they deserve better. This race is wide open. Let’s win it!”
What To Know
Peggy Flanagan, Minnesota’s lieutenant governor, stepped into the general election as the Democratic nominee after defeating Representative Angie Craig in the Democratic primary. Flanagan’s win marked a victory for the party’s progressive wing, which has seen other successful primary candidates lately. She was considered the more progressive contender and received endorsements from Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Minnesota Representative Ilhan Omar, illustrating the divide between progressive and moderate Democrats.
Michele Tafoya, a former NFL sideline reporter, secured the Republican nomination and aims to leverage her recognition as a political outsider. The race has caught national interest as Republicans seek to gain ground in Minnesota, despite Democrats’ strong statewide performances in recent elections.
Recent polling also showed Flanagan ahead, although the margin was larger. The new results suggest Tafoya is closing the gap as the general election approaches. However, a two-point lead is not decisive, especially with two months until Election Day. Flanagan has stronger support among Gen-Z, Millennials, women, Black, and Hispanic voters. Tafoya finds more backing from voters aged 45 and up, men, and white likely voters. Both candidates have the support of 37 percent of independent voters.
Among registered voters, Flanagan leads by 2 points with 40 percent to Tafoya’s 38 percent. This group, consisting of 1,494 registered voters, contributed to a margin of error of 2.7 percent. Tafoya has a favorable rating of 34 percent against a 30 percent unfavorable perception, while 36 percent are undecided. Flanagan is seen favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 34 percent, with 28 percent undecided.
The survey included questions about Flanagan’s positions on gender transitions for minors as potential support topics, though no comparable policy questions were directed at Tafoya. The close nature of the poll suggests both candidates have opportunities to sway voters who are yet undecided.
What Prediction Markets Show
As of Monday afternoon, Kalshi predicted a 90.5 percent chance of Flanagan winning, versus a 9.5 percent chance for Tafoya. Similarly, Polymarket gave Flanagan a 94 percent chance to Tafoya’s 8 percent.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Gray R. Thomas