James Talarico is showing stronger polling numbers in the Texas Senate race against Attorney General Ken Paxton than Beto O’Rourke had at the same stage in his 2018 campaign against Senator Ted Cruz. For decades, Democrats have aimed to secure a win in Texas, but have consistently fallen short. However, this year, forecasts label the Senate race as a toss-up.
A triumph by Talarico would mark the first Democratic win in a Texas Senate race in nearly four decades. Senator Cruz has cautioned that a Democratic victory in Texas could lead to long-term national domination by the party.
James Talarico’s Prospects Against Ken Paxton
A recent poll by SoCal Strategies places Talarico ahead with 50% of the vote, compared to Paxton’s 45%. This is a reversal from June when the same poll had Paxton leading. Talarico’s support among Hispanic voters has increased significantly, from a 10-point gap in June to 38 points now. His lead among independent voters also surged from 10 points to 45 points. Additionally, 12% of Republicans express intent to vote for Talarico.
As in previous polling, Republican voters remain more undecided than Democrats. Six percent of those who backed Trump in 2024 are undecided in the Senate race, whereas only one percent of those who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris remain undecided.
For Paxton to succeed, he must secure nearly all undecided voters and regain a significant portion of the 12% of Republicans leaning toward Talarico if the election occurred today.
Predictive markets have also shifted in favor of Talarico. Polymarket has adjusted Talarico’s winning probability to 53%, starkly different from late July, when Paxton was favored with 56% odds. Kalshi reflects a similar trend, offering Talarico a 52% chance, a notable change from a few days prior when Paxton led with comparable odds.
Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 Senate Campaign Progress
During a similar period in the 2018 campaign, Ted Cruz was leading Beto O’Rourke by roughly 3 points, based on an average of polls by Real Clear Politics. Cruz ultimately secured victory by 2 points. At that time, Cruz commended O’Rourke on a strong campaign.
Currently, Cruz acknowledges the Democratic threat. On a recent podcast, Cruz admitted Republicans might “lose Texas.” In July, he noted Talarico’s “real chance” of winning.
“This is a real race. I believe it will be close. While I believe we will maintain Texas’s Republican status, current polls indicate a 1- or 2-point race,” Cruz told Governor Greg Abbott during a guest stint on Sean Hannity’s radio show.
Cruz also expressed deep concerns about the Senate during a conversation with Sean Spicer, former press secretary under President Trump, identifying Texas among the “very competitive” Senate races, warning of potential challenges for Republicans.