By Michael Grunwald
June 23, 2026
David Jolly, a candidate for governor in Florida, recently shared ambitious sentiments at a Democratic gathering near Fort Lauderdale. Amid cheers, he declared, “We’re winning… this is a blue wave!”
His claim seems improbable, given that Republicans have dominated the governor’s office for seven consecutive terms and hold all statewide offices alongside supermajorities in the State Legislature. Yet, Florida Democrats are making visible gains. They have taken control of the Miami mayor’s office, won a challenging State Senate seat, and gained the State House district that includes Mar-a-Lago.
Mr. Jolly, a former Republican congressman, is optimistic about a Democratic surge comparable to the post-Watergate Republican defeat in 1974. Although he became a Democrat only recently, he’s adopting a typical Democratic agenda, wagering that the electorate is weary of his previous party. His campaign focuses primarily on reducing living costs and appeals to voters tired of cultural debates over issues like book bans and rainbow crosswalks. He is aiming to win by advocating for straightforward policies that promise normalcy and affordability.
Despite appearing like a cautious political maneuver, relying on a considerable Democratic wave in a predominantly Republican state presents challenges. To succeed where Mr. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis won convincingly, Mr. Jolly must appeal to the growing number of voters unconvinced by the Democratic agenda.
Florida once held the reputation of being an electoral battleground. It was the state where President George W. Bush won by a mere 537 votes, and other high-profile politicians won by similarly narrow margins. However, trends have shifted with the migration of Republican baby boomers into the state, turning Florida from a swing state to a region akin to southern Alabama politically.