The current El Niño phenomenon is among the most severe in history, posing a serious risk to global food security and pushing up agricultural commodity prices worldwide. In August, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported that global food prices had reached their highest point since 2022. This rise is largely attributable to challenges faced by major crop-producing countries due to the intense El Niño event.
Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and economist at the University of Chicago, estimates that heat-related deaths could exceed 450,000. The ripple effects of El Niño threaten both supply chains and those depending on them across various regions.
Impact on Agricultural Production
Agricultural production is expected to be most affected in South and Southeast Asia and Western Africa, according to Matin Qaim, a professor of Agricultural Economics at the University of Bonn. He expresses particular concern for impoverished communities that allocate a significant portion of their income to food, as rising prices will make essentials less affordable.
Affected Foods
Regions in the Global South identified as hardest hit by El Niño will likely experience shortages in certain food groups. Chocolate, olive oil, and coffee face predicted supply constraints, leading to potential price increases for U.S. consumers.
Kamiar Mohaddes, a professor at Cambridge University, notes that chocolate and sugar prices are highly sensitive to supply fluctuations, and even slight changes can cause significant price hikes. Mohaddes also highlights a looming shortfall in wheat production and rice import risks due to drought conditions in India, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Climate scientist Amanda Maycock, from the University of Leeds, points out that El Niño has led to significantly reduced monsoon rains in India, affecting rice production. Coffee and cocoa also face challenges from heavy rains and drought conditions.
Duration and Scope of Impact
The United States is likely to avoid severe food shortages driven by El Niño, as Nelson Villoria, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, indicates that lower yields in certain products like corn will be balanced by production elsewhere in the country.
However, poorer nations in Africa and Asia, which rely heavily on grain imports, could see heightened hunger levels. These regions are dealing with compounded supply issues from disrupted shipping routes in the Middle East, suggesting a prolonged impact, potentially lasting six to 12 months, according to Qaim.
Mohaddes projects a global rise in food prices by a mid-teens percentage that might persist for up to two years, peaking by December 2026. A Goldman Sachs analysis mentioned by The Guardian predicts nearly a 16 percent increase in global food commodity prices, expected to fully manifest by late 2028.