President Donald Trump’s net approval rating has experienced a decline in 10 key beef-producing states following his decision to temporarily increase beef import quotas. This move, intended to reduce the cost of beef, showed a notable impact between August 21 and September 21, according to Civiqs’ rolling online tracking survey data.
The data reveals that Trump’s net approval rating fell in Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. The intention behind increasing beef imports was to lower prices for consumers. However, critics expressed concern about the potential negative impact on U.S. ranchers, who are in the process of rebuilding the national cattle herd.
Balancing Competing Pressures
The plan has put Trump in a difficult position, as he tries to balance the goal of reducing grocery costs for consumers with the need to support cattle producers facing increased competition from imported beef. This challenge is particularly significant in states with substantial cattle industries, which have voiced concerns over the government’s strategy.
Net approval ratings dropped in all 10 states surveyed. While the changes were modest, they were consistent. For instance, Trump lost three points in Kentucky, dropping from -8 to -11, and in Oklahoma, where his rating decreased from +4 to +1. In Kansas, his rating declined by two points, from +4 to +2. The average decline across the states was 2.1 percentage points, with a median decline of 2 points.
Trump’s Beef Importation Plan
On August 21, Trump announced a plan aimed at addressing rising grocery costs. His administration proposed allowing up to 300,000 metric tons of additional beef imports for ground beef production over 90 days without applying the higher out-of-quota tariff. Trump commented on Truth Social, emphasizing that this beef would be sold 25 percent below current market prices, intending to reduce prices for consumers and support the growth of the American beef herd.
This move came as consumers faced elevated beef prices, with beef and veal prices standing 9.4 percent higher than the previous year. Additionally, the country was dealing with historically low cattle supply levels.
Industry Response and Criticism
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association expressed concerns, stating that the increase in below-market imported beef might hinder efforts to rebuild the American cattle herd. CEO Colin Woodall emphasized that this approach sacrifices long-term stability for short-term messaging.
Some Republicans echoed this sentiment. Outgoing Representative Thomas Massie criticized Trump’s proposal as ineffective, highlighting legal complexities that remain unchanged by the new import policy.
Despite these declines, Trump maintained a positive net approval rating in five of the states on September 21, including North Dakota and Oklahoma. The administration has presented this measure as part of its broader effort to address affordability prior to the November midterm elections. The initiative is set to remain in place through Election Day, which is on November 3.