Democratic state Representative James Talarico is outpacing Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in the pivotal race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas. A poll conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research, released on Friday, shows Talarico with 47% of the vote, surpassing Paxton, who holds 44%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown has 1%, while 7% remain undecided, and 2% express that they would not vote.
Paxton recently secured the Senate GOP runoff by defeating Senator John Cornyn, with President Donald Trump offering a late endorsement that bolstered Paxton’s campaign. This Republican runoff came after a primary that left neither Cornyn nor Paxton with a majority, creating a highly watched contest that will determine who faces Talarico in the November election.
The poll also addressed undecided voters’ leanings: Paxton received 19%, Talarico 17%, and Brown 13%—50% are still unsure.
The poll involved 1,670 likely voters surveyed on May 27 and 28 and has a 2.8% margin of error. Talarico’s favorability rating stands at 47%, with 40% unfavorable, while Paxton’s favorability is at 38% compared to a 57% unfavorable rating.
Understanding Economic Challenges
When asked who better understands the economic challenges of working Texans, 40% chose Paxton, and 45% Talarico; 8% felt neither candidate understood, and 7% were unsure. Regarding ideological views, 75% of respondents think Paxton is too conservative, with 60% feeling Talarico is too liberal.
Prominent Republicans like U.S. Senator Ted Cruz and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller have criticized Talarico post-runoff. Attacks have focused on Talarico’s stance on the American flag, rumors of veganism, and past comments on gender and religion. Talarico has countered by highlighting controversies involving Paxton, branding him “the most corrupt politician in America.”
Race Downgraded to ‘Lean Republican’
The Cook Political Report changed the race’s status from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican” after Paxton’s victory. Their rating system ranges from “solid Republican” to “solid Democrat.” With Paxton as the candidate, Cook’s analysis suggests national Republicans face a less favorable election scenario. Jessica Taylor, editor of U.S. Senate and governors race coverage, noted in the report that Paxton is viewed as a weaker candidate compared to Cornyn, impacting fundraising efforts.
Trump’s Reaction
Following the runoff win, Trump congratulated Paxton and acknowledged Cornyn’s “great career.” On Truth Social, Trump described Paxton as a “common sense Senator” respected by all. He criticized Talarico, dubbing him “the worst TEXAS candidate” for his stances on open borders, crime, and other issues, also labeling Jasmine Crockett as a stronger alternative.