As the midterm elections approach and 21 months into his second term, President Donald Trump faces negative approval ratings in 41 states and all key battlegrounds. These figures, drawn from Civiqs’ voter tracker, include 137,330 responses from January 20, 2025, to October 19, 2026. The analysis compares these current ratings to those at the start of Trump’s second term, focusing on net approval, which is the approval rate minus disapproval.
Current National Approval
Nationally, only 32% of voters approve of Trump’s performance, while 61% disapprove, resulting in a net approval of minus 29. Nine states still show positive net approval for Trump, though every major battleground remains negative, with the worst ratings in Michigan (-28), Georgia (-26), and Nevada (-24).
State Approval Trends
Kentucky has seen the most significant decline since January 2025, dropping 36 points from +23 to -13. Trump holds negative net approval in six critical states for Senate control. Wyoming remains Trump’s strongest with +14, followed by North Dakota at +11.
Impact on Midterms
While presidential approval doesn’t predict individual races, it defines the national environment for candidates. Trump’s standing may influence voter turnout and campaign messaging as Republicans try to distance themselves from his administration.
Positive Ratings in Nine States
Trump’s positive ratings persist in Republican-leaning states. Wyoming leads with +14, followed by North Dakota (+11) and West Virginia (+8). Arkansas, Idaho, Alabama, South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Utah also show slight positive net approval. Despite these figures, Trump’s ratings have dropped since January 2025.
Demographic Insights
Demographic data reveals key insights into approval ratings. Among voters aged 18 to 34, only 20% approve of Trump, while 72% disapprove. Voters aged 35 to 49 show 25% approving and 66% disapproving. Older age groups are less negative but still disapprove overall.
Independents oppose Trump by a margin of 66% to 25%, while Republicans show support at 75% approval to 13% disapproval. Female voters disapprove 66% to 28%, compared to a 55-to-37 split among male voters. Education also divides opinions, with postgraduates and college graduates showing higher disapproval than non-college graduates.
Battleground States
Two weeks before the midterms, Trump is underwater in key battlegrounds: Arizona (-20), Florida (-17), Georgia (-26), Michigan (-28), and Nevada (-24), among others. These states were more supportive or evenly split when Trump began his term.
Midterm Focus States
Trump’s negative ratings in essential Senate contest states include: Maine (-33), Michigan (-28), Iowa (-22), and others. These figures highlight Republican efforts to sway undecided voters where Trump’s disapproval outweighs approval.
Steep Declines in Approval
Approval has dropped significantly across states since January 2025. Notable declines include Kentucky (+23 to -13), Wyoming (+47 to +14), and Idaho (+34 to +4). The sharpest decreases occurred in states where Trump initially had high positive ratings.
Stable Disapproval in Democratic States
Deeply Democratic states continue to show firm disapproval. Hawaii leads with the lowest net approval at -61, followed by Maryland and Vermont.
White House Response
The White House emphasizes Trump’s role in energizing the Republican Party. Spokesperson Davis Ingle highlights Trump’s record on tax cuts, border security, and other achievements, framing the midterms as a choice between Trump’s agenda and what he calls extreme Democratic policies.