In the Ohio gubernatorial race, Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s odds plummeted on prediction markets after a controversial video featuring the mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton, was widely circulated. On Tuesday, Kalshi, a prediction market site, noted Acton had a 76 percent chance of winning, while Ramaswamy’s odds fell to 26.8 percent. Similarly, Polymarket recorded his odds dropping to 22 percent later that day.
The video, shared by journalist and podcast host Walter Curt, depicted Donna Arthur, Acton’s mother, accusing her daughter of dishonesty. The clip, viewed over 5 million times, sparked significant backlash. Arthur claims, “Amy has a serious problem; she is a liar,” urging voters not to elect her as governor.
Acton’s campaign countered these claims, highlighting her removal from her birth mother at age 12. Reports indicate Acton experienced a tumultuous childhood, moving frequently and living in various homes due to her parents’ divorce.
Ramaswamy acknowledged the ad, stating, “It is an ad from our campaign.” He expressed a desire for the election to focus on substantive issues affecting Ohioans, accusing Acton of evading debates and important topics.
Acton’s campaign condemned the ad, with spokesperson Philip Stearns criticizing Ramaswamy for exploiting personal history for political gain. Ramaswamy’s campaign, responding to Newsweek, accused Acton of misleading voters and avoiding public scrutiny.
Prominent voices also weighed in. Meghan McCain termed the ad “dastardly,” while Ohio Department of Development director Lydia Mihalik underscored the importance of maintaining decency in politics. Some, like James Fishback and Sherrod Brown, condemned the ad as unacceptable.
Acton’s campaign released a new ad featuring her brother, defending her and questioning Ramaswamy’s suitability to lead.
Despite the controversies, prediction market perceptions vary. The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race as a toss-up. An ActiVote poll shows Ramaswamy slightly ahead, while a Marist poll gives Acton a lead. Bowling Green State University’s survey saw Acton at 50 percent, ahead of Ramaswamy at 44 percent.
As election day approaches, the significance of these events could shape the final outcome. This article was developed with insights from Newsweek’s AI assistant, Martyn. Contact Newsweek editors for further details.