A piece of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to strike the moon on Wednesday, as reported by scientists. The object, part of the rocket’s upper stage, is predicted to collide with the lunar surface at around 2:35 a.m. ET, traveling at over 5,000 miles per hour. This analysis comes from Bill Gray, a developer of software for tracking space objects.
The fragment is approximately the size of a five-story building. It originated from the Falcon 9 rocket, which transported two lunar landers and scientific equipment to the moon in January 2025. The impact will occur on the moon’s sunlit side, near the Einstein Crater, and may result in a crater approximately 17 meters in diameter.
SpaceX did not plan for this piece to strike the moon. NPR reached out to SpaceX for comment but did not receive a response. Brent Garry, a project scientist with NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) at Goddard Space Flight Center, noted that the orbiter would survey the region before and after the impact to observe any surface changes.
“After the impact, we might have a little bit more knowledge of where it is. We can do some additional targeting about a week after the impact and get some targeting over where the site is,” Garry stated.
Researchers believe the impact might not be directly visible, with dust plumes being difficult to detect through professional telescopes. Gray mentioned on his website that if rocks ejected by the impact create a visible plume against the dark background, it might be observable.
Ben Fernando, a postdoctoral fellow and researcher at Los Alamos National Laboratory, commented on this rare opportunity for observation. Although not visible with binoculars, sensitive telescopes might capture the event. “Given these are so rare, I would encourage people who are interested and aware of the risks to take a look,” he said.