Interim Senator Darline Graham and Representative Ralph Norman are the leading candidates in South Carolina’s fast-paced Republican Senate primary. A recent survey reveals their standings, with the primary approaching soon.
Conducted on July 21, the poll shows Graham is favored by 20.8% of likely Republican primary voters, while Norman trails with 16.9%. No candidate has a majority, suggesting the August 11 primary may lead to a runoff on August 25.
The survey released insights into the race following President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Graham on July 17 and her decision to seek a full Senate term.
The special election follows the July 11 death of Senator Lindsey Graham, a longtime GOP figure and Trump ally. Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham’s sister, Darline, to complete the term, prompting a rapid campaign for this open Senate seat.
Initially viewed as a placeholder, Graham’s position changed with Trump’s strong endorsement, encouraging her to pursue her brother’s legacy. Despite leading the poll, her standing is unsettled. The poll found 17.8% of voters unfamiliar with her, and 31.3% uncertain about their opinion.
Conducted by Resonance Media Services under political strategist Rick Quinn, the poll surveyed 600 likely Republican voters with a margin of error of 4 percentage points, making Graham’s lead within the margin.
Norman Eyes a Runoff
Trailing Graham, Norman holds a strategic edge in a potential runoff. The poll shows robust favorability numbers and strong support as a secondary choice.
Norman, known as a vocal Trump supporter, ranked third in the recent gubernatorial primary. Despite Graham’s endorsement from Trump, Norman pushes forward.
The rest of the candidates show divided support. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette is at 9.6%, with Representative Russell Fry and businessman Mark Lynch at 7.2% each. Former Governor Mark Sanford polled at 7.1%, Representative Nancy Mace at 2.8%, and attorney Duke Buckner at 0.9%. Sanford, a known Trump critic, announced his Senate bid after the survey, while Mace exited the race.
Conservative Endorsements
The primary has attracted national attention from key party figures. Graham receives support from Senator Tom Cotton, even though Senate Majority Leader John Thune praised her without endorsing.
Norman has garnered backing from prominent conservatives like Senators Rick Scott and Mike Lee, illustrating a stark division within the party leadership.
Looking Toward the General Election
As Republicans engage in a crowded primary, Democrat Annie Andrews, who secured her nomination on June 9, prepares for the November general election. Andrews suggests that the drawn-out GOP primary might favor Democrats.
Political scientist Justin Vaughn from Coastal Carolina University highlighted that despite Republican tensions, South Carolina remains a stronghold for the GOP. The seat is still regarded as a safe Republican hold.
Trump’s 2024 victory in the state by 18 points, along with Democrats’ last Senate win in 1998, confirms the state’s Republican dominance. As the August 11 primary nears, this tightly contested race is a national focus, marked by its active electorate and brief campaign period.