The United States, described by John F. Kennedy as ‘a nation of immigrants,’ has been shaped by numerous waves of foreign-born individuals. Immigration remains a contentious issue, particularly during recent years with large numbers of migrants arriving under the Biden administration. This prompted political concern and public backlash resembling the mass deportations under President Donald Trump.
A Pew Research Center survey shows illegal immigration perceived as a ‘very big problem’ by 51 percent of voters, including 78 percent of Republicans and 27 percent of Democrats. Trump vowed to address this issue, promising the largest mass deportation in U.S. history. In the first year of his administration, officials reported nearly 3 million ‘illegal aliens’ left the country.
Immigration Decline After Trump’s Return
Due to the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration, coupled with perceived hostility towards migrants, immigration has significantly slowed. According to Brookings, the U.S. experienced negative net immigration for the first time in a decade, with projections indicating the same trend in 2026.
In 2025, net immigration was estimated between -295,000 and -10,000. For 2026, projections range from -925,000 to +185,000, confirmed by Census data showing a decline from 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025. Population growth also slowed to 0.5%, influenced by stable birth and death rates and declining migration.
The Role of Immigration in Preventing Population Decline
Experts argue that immigration has helped shape the U.S. and its reduction could impact the country’s future. Demographer William H. Frey advocates for welcoming migrants to prevent workforce aging and population decline. Conversely, Steven Camarota from the Center for Immigration Studies suggests lower immigration rates.
Both scholars propose scenarios based on varying immigration levels. Frey illustrates zero, low, and high immigration scenarios using recent U.S. population projections. Camarota envisions low, medium, and high immigration scenarios, dismissing the possibility of zero immigration.
Zero/Low Immigration Scenario
Frey’s zero immigration scenario forecasts the U.S. population shrinking to 312 million by 2051, while low immigration results in modest growth to 345 million. Camarota aligns with similar Census Bureau estimates, anticipating a modest increase to 343 million under low immigration.
Frey argues the absence of immigration will be more impactful than in the past, as deaths are expected to outpace births by 2031, causing rapid aging of the population. Camarota emphasizes the minimal change to the working-age population under low immigration.
Medium Immigration Scenario
Under medium immigration, Camarota anticipates the U.S. population will grow by 34.6 million between 2023 and 2060, reaching 364 million. The working-age share will decrease, but less sharply than under low immigration scenarios.
High Immigration Scenario
High immigration could raise the population to 385 million, maintaining historical growth rates and a younger demographic profile. In contrast, Camarota projects a population of 397 million but challenges the perception that increased immigration elevates the working-age proportion when accounting for aging.
The Debate on Immigration’s Impact on Aging
Frey asserts immigrants help maintain a younger U.S. population, as they are generally younger, contributing to the workforce and broader economy. Camarota argues immigrants arrive at varying ages and their decreasing fertility rates parallel native-born populations, minimizing their impact on population rejuvenation.
CIS data indicates that immigrant households have consistently higher welfare program usage compared to U.S.-born households, reflecting economic challenges faced by low-income families. Camarota suggests the solution lies in selecting more highly-educated immigrants less reliant on social services.
Changing Demographics and Public Opinion
Differing immigration levels will also alter the U.S.’s ethnic makeup. Most immigrants are Hispanic and Asian, influencing the country’s ethnic composition. Under zero immigration, the foreign-born population would halve by 2051, while each nonwhite group would grow with low immigration scenarios.
Public sentiment on immigration remains divided. Recent polls indicate Americans generally view immigration favorably, yet political support for Trump’s strict policies is waning. The upcoming elections may further reveal public attitudes toward immigration.