Republican Congressman Byron Donalds currently lags behind Democratic candidate David Jolly in the Florida governor race, as indicated by a new Change Research poll. This firm, which leans Democratic, provides a glimmer of optimism for Democrats in Florida. The party has not secured a statewide victory since 2018, while the state has gradually leaned towards the Republicans. Governor Ron DeSantis, who cannot run again in 2026 due to term limits, won his second term by a margin of nearly 20 percentage points in 2022. Republicans have since increased their voter registration advantage and maintained control of all statewide elected offices.
Despite these challenges, recent polling indicates a potentially competitive race to replace DeSantis. Last month, former President Donald Trump reiterated his support for Donalds, stating, “I know Byron well, have seen him tested at the highest and most difficult levels, and he is a TOTAL WINNER!” Trump further emphasized, “Byron Donalds will be a truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement. HE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!” Trump himself won Florida by 13 points in 2024 against Kamala Harris. No Democrat has won the Florida governorship in over 20 years.
Campaign Reactions
In response to the new poll, Donalds’ campaign referenced a comment from Gates McGavick, the team’s communications director, who sarcastically remarked about the reliability of Change Research. Ryan Smith, associated with the campaign, dismissed the poll as being biased towards Democrats, predicting a victory for Donalds on November 3.
Details of the Change Research Survey
The Change Research poll shows Jolly leading Donalds in a theoretical general election match-up. Jolly, a former Republican who switched to the Democratic Party, has focused his campaign on issues like insurance costs, housing, and healthcare affordability. Donalds, running as a conservative in line with Trump’s agenda, emphasizes his stance against illegal immigration.
According to the poll, Jolly holds a 47 to 42 percent lead over Donalds among registered voters, with a broader margin of 49 to 43 percent among likely voters. The poll samples 1,273 registered voters, with 1,015 anticipating voting in the 2026 midterm election. It has a margin of error of 2.8 percent. Among Democrats, Jolly receives 94 percent support, compared to Donalds’ 77 percent support among Republicans.
Other Polls and Findings
Another Change Research poll shows Jolly ahead of Donalds with a 46 to 42 percent lead. This survey, conducted from May 13 to May 16, involved 2,070 registered voters, with 1,593 likely to vote in the midterm election. The margin of error is 2.3 percent.
In a March survey conducted by Emerson College Polling, Donalds received 44 percent of the vote against Jolly’s 39 percent, with 17 percent undecided. This poll was carried out from March 29 to March 31 among 1,125 likely voters and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.