A recent national survey indicates Vice President JD Vance as the frontrunner in the potential 2028 Republican presidential primary, significantly ahead of his competitors. Despite the election being years away and candidates withholding formal announcements, the Big Data Poll places Vance at the forefront with 35.4% support. This is more than double the support for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who follows with 16.5%.
On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads with 29.1%, while California Governor Gavin Newsom trails her with 15%. Vance’s popularity within the Republican Party and among likely voters is evident, though the 2028 nomination contest remains uncertain. High-profile Republicans, including Rubio, are seen as potential contenders, pending their decision to run.
Within the Democratic field, 2026 surveys show Harris as a leading choice among primary voters. Newsom, New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg also attract notable support. Currently, no candidates have formally declared their candidacy.
What The Poll Shows
The recent poll highlights Vance as the leader among potential candidates, including Rubio, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr., Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and others. DeSantis secures 7.1% of the potential votes, Kennedy Jr. claims 6.5%, Cruz with 4.4%, and others have less than 4%.
Overall, 12.1% of respondents remain undecided about their choice in the GOP primary, while 2.5% express preference for candidates not listed. Among likely voters, Vance garners 36.6% compared to Rubio’s 17.5%. Vance surpasses Rubio in nearly every demographic, including men, women, Hispanics, Republicans, and Independents.
The survey conducted between June 26 and June 28, 2026, involved 1,261 registered Republican voters and carries a 1.8% margin of error. These results align with other polls showing Vance at or near the top of the Republican field. Harris too appears as the early leader for Democrats, despite ongoing speculation surrounding potential candidates.
With more than two years before the first presidential primaries, experts advise cautious interpretation of early polls; they primarily reflect name recognition rather than predicting nomination outcomes.
What Has JD Vance Said About a Potential 2028 Run?
Vance has consistently refrained from committing to a 2028 presidential bid, focusing instead on his current role. In an interview with Megyn Kelly, he expressed that his priority remains serving in the present administration.
JD Vance also remarked during a CBS Sunday Morning interview that President of the United States would likely support his future decisions, though discussions about his next steps remain pending.
In May, responding to Trump’s comments about a potential Vance-Rubio ticket as a “dream team,” Vance told Newsweek that Americans might disfavor a candidate seen as ambitious so soon after assuming office. He stated his reluctance to discuss such topics further.