Democratic candidate James Talarico faces an uphill battle against Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race. Paxton’s recent victory, securing the GOP nomination with 62% of the vote against incumbent John Cornyn, has flipped the prediction markets in his favor.
Tuesday’s results, combined with President Donald Trump’s endorsement, have pushed Paxton ahead. However, with over five months left until Election Day, the race remains open. Democrats aim to breakthrough in Texas, a state they haven’t won statewide office in since the mid-1990s. Urban areas like Austin, Dallas, and Houston, which trend blue, suggest a competitive race.
Betting Odds
Prediction markets reflect Paxton’s recent success. Polymarket shows Talarico’s odds dropping from 45% to around 40%. Kalshi places his chances at 43%, slightly down from earlier in the week. BetOnline indicates a shift back toward the GOP, with Paxton at -125 and Talarico at -105.
What the Polls Have Said
Polls suggest a highly competitive race. An Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll showed both tied at 45.6% in a hypothetical January matchup. By March, Talarico had won the Democratic nomination, defeating Jasmine Crockett.
April polls indicated Talarico with a lead. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll had him ahead 46% to 41%. Another University of Texas poll gave Talarico an 8-point lead, 42% to 34%. However, late-April surveys forecasted a tie, with both at 45% according to a Texas Southern University poll. This pattern mirrors Beto O’Rourke’s 2018 campaign, with Talarico polling stronger at this stage.
The Cook Political Report lists the race as Lean Republican, acknowledging the GOP’s historical strength in Texas.
What Have Paxton and Talarico Said About the Race?
After his victory, Paxton addressed supporters, stating, “This Senate seat doesn’t belong to Washington. It belongs to you, the hard-working men and women of this state.” Paxton portrays himself as a grassroots candidate focused on border security and opposing federal overreach. He is characterized as “a MAGA Warrior” by Trump.
Talarico has faced attacks over past comments, such as his 2021 statement that “God is nonbinary,” used by Republicans to brand him as too liberal. Talarico reframes the race as a choice between “corruption and extremism” versus a moderate, policy-oriented governance. He has criticized Paxton’s past controversies, calling him “the most corrupt politician in America.” Despite a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House, Paxton was acquitted by the Senate.
Voters in Texas will make their decision on November 3, 2026.