Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico is gaining traction among 2024 Donald Trump voters, notably more than his Republican rival, Attorney General Ken Paxton, is among Kamala Harris voters. These figures come from a recent Big Data Poll.
The Democratic party aims to secure both the Senate and the House during the upcoming November midterms. Doing so would hinder President Trump’s legislative power over the final two years of his second term. Winning a Senate seat in Texas, a Republican stronghold, would mark a significant victory for Democrats who last succeeded in the state in 1988.
Big Data Poll
Polling company Big Data Poll surveyed 698 likely voters in Texas from September 24 to September 26. James Talarico, a current Texas State Representative, leads Ken Paxton by 44.6 percent to 41.6 percent when considering voters who express a strong preference for candidates.
Talarico has the support of 15 percent of Trump’s 2024 voters. Paxton, however, has only managed to garner 4.3 percent of Harris voters. Meanwhile, 89.3 percent of Harris supporters favor Talarico, compared to 72.2 percent of Trump supporters for Paxton. The poll’s margin of error is four percentage points.
In the 2024 presidential election, Trump secured Texas with 56.2 percent of the votes, compared to Harris’s 42.5 percent, a margin of 13.7 percentage points.
SoCal Strategies Survey
Similar findings emerge from a SoCal Strategies survey of 649 prospective Texas voters conducted September 12 to 13. Talarico reportedly has the backing of 95 percent of Harris voters from 2024 and 14 percent of Trump voters. Conversely, Paxton receives support from 84 percent of Trump voters and merely four percent of Harris voters.
The survey also highlighted Paxton’s weaker appeal among Harris voters compared to Governor Greg Abbott. Abbott, challenged by Democrat Gina Hinojosa, is backed by 89 percent of Trump voters and 13 percent of Harris voters. Hinojosa has the support of 87 percent of Harris’s voters and 9 percent of Trump’s. The survey gave Talarico a five-point lead, 50 percent to Paxton’s 45 percent. In the governor’s race, Abbott leads Hinojosa by 52 to 44 percent.
Other Polling
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey published on Friday indicates Talarico leads Paxton by five points with 49 percent to Paxton’s 44 percent. Conducted among 1,007 likely Texas voters from September 19 to 22, it has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.
Conversely, a Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely voters shows Talarico leading by a narrower margin of two percentage points, 47 percent to Paxton’s 45 percent. This survey was carried out from July 27 to 30.
On prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, Talarico’s odds have improved notably, currently standing at 61 percent against Paxton’s 40 percent. On Kalshi, Talarico holds a 59 percent chance compared to Paxton’s 41 percent. Previously, Paxton led in July on both platforms.
Candidate Controversies
Ken Paxton, endorsed by Trump, has stirred controversy among Texas Republicans, possibly accounting for his subpar performance compared to Governor Abbott. Paxton defeated incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who accused him of deceit, in a contentious May runoff. Cornyn has stated he won’t support Paxton during the election.
In 2023, Paxton faced impeachment by the Texas House over allegations related to trust abuse and misconduct but was later found not guilty by the Senate.
Talarico has faced scrutiny for remarks on Christianity, for instance, his 2021 statement claiming “God is nonbinary” while speaking in the Texas House. He later described himself on a podcast as “a Christian who hates Christianity” due to its radical teachings. Paxton’s campaign distributed a video portraying Talarico as “a Christian who hates Christianity,” omitting subsequent clarifications.
Talarico recently issued a debate challenge to Paxton on Fox News during the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. Although Paxton’s campaign advisor Nick Maddux stated in July that they would debate Talarico, no concrete plans have been scheduled yet.