Democratic Primary Outlook for 2028
Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Senator Jon Ossoff are gaining ground against California Governor Gavin Newsom in the prediction markets for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. As polls indicate a fluid race, potential candidates are preparing for campaigns post-midterms. Many are visiting primary states to increase their visibility with voters.
Prediction markets offer insights into early perceptions of the 2028 field. These markets allow buying and selling of contracts based on political events. They reflect trader sentiments but don’t always predict outcomes accurately. Traders react to polls, fundraising, and broader political trends.
Current Market Predictions
According to Polymarket, Ocasio-Cortez now has a 15% chance of winning the nomination, up from 9% a month prior. Ossoff’s chances increased to 14% from less than 6%. Newsom’s odds have decreased to 18% from 25%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris remains steady at approximately 8%.
Similarly, in Kalshi’s market, Ocasio-Cortez’s chances rose from 10% to 16%, while Ossoff’s increased from 9% to 14%. Newsom maintained a 21-22% probability.
Recent Polling Data
Despite prediction markets, recent polls show Harris leading. A FocalData poll reports her support at 33%, while Newsom follows at 15%, Ocasio-Cortez at 9%, and former Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 8%. The survey included 764 registered voters nationwide from June 26 to 30.
A McLaughlin poll also placed Harris in the lead with 26%. Newsom followed with 16%, and Ocasio-Cortez with 9%. The poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from June 17-23.
A Harvard/Harris poll indicated Harris’ support rising to 50% in April. Newsom stood at 22%, Shapiro at 9%, and Ocasio-Cortez at 8%. The poll surveyed 2,745 registered voters from April 23-26 with a margin of error of 1.87%.
Statements from Potential Candidates
Several Democrats are contemplating a 2028 run. Harris, who has visited key states recently, expressed potential interest but hasn’t officially announced. Newsom told The Wall Street Journal that he might consider running but isn’t focused on it for now.
Ocasio-Cortez emphasized her commitment to policy change rather than personal ambition. Ossoff stated he isn’t interested in a 2028 presidential run, focusing on his Georgia Senate reelection instead.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer confirmed she won’t run, citing a likely robust candidate pool.
Newsweek’s editors Gabe Whisnant and Edward Cummins received requests for comments from the involved political figures.