Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford has been pitted against Republican Governor Joe Lombardo in Nevada’s upcoming election. This follows Ford’s win at Tuesday’s Democratic primary. Known for its pivotal role in elections, Nevada will present a closely watched race as voters decide who will govern the Silver State.
Nevada’s Political Landscape
In previous elections, Nevada has shown varied support, backing President Donald Trump by a margin of around 3 percent in 2024. This marked a change from its decisions in 2016 and 2020, where Democratic nominees received its support. Prior to Lombardo’s administration, Democrat Steve Sisolak held the governor’s position. Analysts from the Cook Political Report have categorized the gubernatorial contest as highly competitive.
For Democrats, the 2026 midterms represent an opportunity to gain leverage not only in Congress but also in governor positions. This could potentially shift control in both the legislative and executive branches.
The Candidates and Primary Results
By winning the Democratic primary, Ford surpassed several competitors, including Washoe County Commissioner Alexis Hill. Achieving 66.2 percent of the vote, Ford secured his place on the ballot against Lombardo, who garnered a notable 91.4 percent of Republican votes. Ford’s success in the primaries is perceived as a signal that establishment-aligned candidates fare well in statewide races.
If elected, Ford would become Nevada’s first Black governor. His opponent, Lombardo, is seen as a vulnerable incumbent by some due to fluctuating support for Trump policies and concerns over mass deportation plans. Lombardo has shown a tendency to distance himself from Trump on occasion, such as his non-appearance alongside Trump during an April visit to Las Vegas. Former Vice President Kamala Harris has also endorsed Ford.
Polling Data
Polling data remains scarce for the general election. However, a survey by Noble Predictive Insights showed Lombardo holding a slight lead with 39 percent compared to Ford’s 38 percent. In this hypothetical scenario, third-party candidates pulled 6 percent of votes, with 17 percent of voters yet undecided.
Among key demographics, Lombardo leads slightly among independents and moderates, whereas Ford has stronger support from Hispanic and female voters. Lombardo attracts a 48 percent favorability rating, above Ford’s 40 percent. Voter familiarity also differs, with a larger percentage unfamiliar with or ambivalent toward Ford.
Mike Noble from Noble Predictive Insights remarked on Lombardo’s strong positioning, stating, “Lombardo is doing what strong incumbents do — he’s running ahead of his party.” The March poll showed Nevada tilting blue, yet Lombardo’s personal reputation and resources keep him in competitive standing.
An Emerson College Polling survey in November displayed Ford and Lombardo tied at 41 percent each, with 18 percent undecided. Lombardo received a 36 percent disapproval rating compared to a 34 percent approval.
Prediction Markets
Various prediction markets indicate an edge for Democrats. Kalshi projects a 56 percent probability for Democrats to win the governorship, while Republicans hold a 46 percent likelihood. Polymarket assigns Democrats a 54 percent chance against Republicans’ 43 percent.