Major League Baseball arranged the schedule so all 15 games on the final regular season day start within a few minutes of each other. This year exemplified what they envisioned with a dramatic finish to two races.
The American League West featured a tie between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, both at 80-81. Meanwhile, the battle for the third wild card spot in the National League involved the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.
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The Phillies avoided a historic collapse and secured a wild card series spot with a 7-3 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays. According to FanGraphs, their postseason chances had been 99.1% as recently as last week.
The Astros, despite winning, set a different kind of record. They became the worst division-winning team in baseball history. Their 81-81 record marked the lowest winning percentage for a division winner. Previously, the 2005 San Diego Padres held this record with an 82-80 finish in the NL West. The Astros managed a 9-0 triumph over the eliminated Athletics to reach the 81-win mark and avoid adding to a worse season record.
Win-loss records determine rankings, but run differential often predicts future performances. Teams with better run differentials tend to win more games over time. Blowout victories show team quality, while one-run games are less reliable indicators.
For example, the Miami Marlins outscored opponents by only three runs, leading to an expected record of 81-81. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers, with a +214 run differential, matched their expected 103-59 record precisely.
Many factors can cause teams to deviate from their expected win-loss records. These include bullpen performance, luck, and injuries. Other influences are defense, hitting consistency, and baseball’s inherent randomness.
The 81-81 Astros had a -32 run differential and an expected 78-84 record. The Rangers were even worse, with a -46 differential and a 76-86 expected record. These outcomes indicate that neither team performed at the top tier.
Even so, predicting Houston’s postseason outcome remains complex. The Astros face the Chicago White Sox in a wild card series. The small sample size of a playoff series makes predictions tricky. FanGraphs gave Houston a 55% chance to advance to the AL Division Series.
If Houston wins, they face the Cleveland Guardians, who ended the season with a +11 run differential and an 85-77 record. The Guardians could slightly edge the Astros, but there’s no certainty on the outcome.
By scheduling every game at the same time on the last day, MLB ensured dramatic finishes. However, the structure also allowed the worst-ever division team to progress. The league’s financial incentives and playoff format encourage minimal spending, aiming to win around 85 games and hope for favorable outcomes. In Houston’s case, this meant winning 81 games, giving fans a lackluster AL West race.
The drama of the last day aligns with MLB’s goals, delivering excitement. But it also showcases the shortcomings of the current playoff structure and team strategies.