By Fred Backus, Jennifer De Pinto
Republicans and Democrats both view the upcoming midterms as a referendum on President Trump, albeit for differing reasons. Trump’s influence on voters is notable, potentially exceeding his impact on past midterm elections, such as in 2018.
This election takes place amidst economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, overseas conflicts, and the effect of artificial intelligence. In 2026, prices and inflation drive voter sentiment against the party in power. Despite this, most voters doubt that either party can improve their financial situation, choosing opposition instead.
Voters generally prefer candidates who oppose new tariffs and the Iran conflict, linking these to higher prices. CBS News’ House model reflects Democrats’ lead in Congress, translating general preferences into estimated seats. Democrats are projected to hold 228 seats, a majority, with a potential increase to the high 230s depending on forthcoming breaks. However, at lower bounds, this drops to 215, indicating Republicans’ chance to maintain their narrow House majority.
A significant MAGA and Trump voter base remain loyal to the GOP, driven by opposition to the Democrats, rather than affirming their policies. More Democrats claim enthusiasm about voting compared to Republicans. Trump’s impact on GOP turnout remains strong, especially among MAGA supporters.
The congressional seat range ultimately relies on key groups and whether parties can convincingly argue they’ll improve voters’ lives. Democrats hold a slight advantage but face challenges within their base concerning democratic socialist endorsements. Latinx voters increasingly favor Democrats, largely opposing the current administrative stance on ICE.
Trump’s win in 2024 owed partly to perceptions of economic improvement, yet many of his prior voters remain GOP-loyal despite price concerns. They perceive a Democratic Congress as a cultural threat. Within Republican ranks, opinions diverge over gas prices during the Iran conflict. While MAGA Republicans accept higher costs, others do not.
Both parties anticipate AI reducing job opportunities, with Democrats more concerned. Generally, voters prefer candidates against additional local data centers. This CBS News/YouGov survey involved 2,460 U.S. adults, representing nationwide demographics, conducted from September 8-11, 2026.
The survey accounted for gender, age, race, education, and previous presidential vote. Statistical models estimated Republican and Democratic seats, factoring data such as past votes, district characteristics, demographics, and historical patterns. These estimates subject to error simulate many elections to determine seat estimates, reporting 95% confidence intervals, which are provisional and may adjust with new data close to election day.
Polls conducted by CBS News suggest current standings are likely to change as Election Day approaches.