Several traditionally Republican areas in Texas have seen a shift in political donations this year. Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is drawing more financial support than his Republican rival, Attorney General Ken Paxton, in several ZIP codes that previously supported President Donald Trump. An analysis of Federal Election Commission records by The Houston Chronicle highlights this trend.
Texas has become a pivotal state in the effort to control the Senate. Democrats, aiming to secure a Senate seat in Texas for the first time since 1988, are looking to capitalize on Trump’s declining popularity.
Fundraising Trends
In University Park, a Dallas suburb that Trump won in 2024, Talarico raised $214,296, surpassing Paxton’s $181,656 by over 18 percent through June 30. Talarico is outperforming Paxton in several ZIP codes across the state.
The Houston Chronicle analysis demonstrated how individual contributions to each campaign were mapped by donor ZIP code.
For example, in The Woodlands north of Houston, Talarico raised $238,622, compared to Paxton’s $39,281. In the center of The Woodlands (77381), contributions were $98,103 for Talarico and $19,247 for Paxton. Further west in Houston, Talarico outpaced Paxton in significant ZIP codes.
Impact and Analysis
Talarico’s fundraising success is attributed to shifts in Republican strongholds. These areas previously gave Trump overwhelming support in 2024. For instance, House District 15, covering parts of The Woodlands, saw Trump take 62.8 percent of the vote.
While Talarico’s largest donations come from places that opposed Trump, such as the 78746 ZIP code covering West Lake Hills, he continues to make gains in areas rooted in Republican tradition.
The Role of Trump
The financial landscape shifted further amid internal party tensions. Paxton reportedly blamed Trump for hindering his campaign, referencing a Republican convention that allegedly affected their numbers negatively. However, senior campaign advisor Nick Maddux refuted these claims, stating that recent internals show Paxton ahead by three points.
Polling Insights
Public polls suggest that Talarico is slightly ahead in the Texas Senate race, though margins remain slim. Among recent surveys, Talarico leads in six, with one showing a tie, while Paxton’s sponsored poll gives him a three-point edge. Nonpartisan surveys generally show Talarico maintaining a narrow lead.
The upcoming months will prove decisive as campaign efforts intensify in these key Texas communities.