Democrat James Talarico currently holds a slim lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’s closely watched U.S. Senate race. According to a recent survey by SoCal Strategies, Talarico is ahead with 50% of the vote, while Paxton has 45%. This shows a change from June, when Paxton led 49% to 47% in the same poll.
Texas has historically been a Republican bastion in federal elections. However, recent demographic and political shifts have made contests increasingly competitive. Both campaigns have been contacted for comments outside regular hours.
Talarico Leads Among Various Demographics
The latest survey, conducted between September 12 and 13 among 649 likely voters, highlights Talarico’s lead across several voter groups. Support from Hispanic voters increased from 10% in June to 38%. Among independent voters, his backing rose from 10% to 45%. Furthermore, support among self-identified Republicans grew to 12%, and among voters aged 18 to 29, it reached 46%.
Attorney General Paxton maintains a lead among white voters, with 56% preferring him over 39% for Talarico. Additionally, Paxton leads among voters aged 45 to 64 by 49% to 46% and those over 65 by 51% to 44%.
Path to Election Day
The poll signals potential tightening as the election draws near, indicating Republican voters show more indecision compared to Democrats. “Much like the last poll, Republicans are less decided than Democrats,” the survey report explains. Six percent of respondents who back Trump in 2024 remain undecided in the Senate race, whereas only one percent of Harris’s supporters are undecided.
Paxton requires securing almost all undecided voters and winning back some of the 12% of Republicans who lean toward Talarico. Trump has endorsed Paxton, calling him “the greatest attorney general in America,” and continues to criticize Talarico publicly.
Polls Show Competitive Senate Race
Texas has favored Republican presidential candidates since 1980. In 2024, Trump’s victory over Harris was by a margin of 13.7 percentage points. Though no Democrat has won a statewide office since 1994, Democrats view 2026 as a significant opportunity due to demographic changes.
Polls indicate a close contest, with Talarico and Paxton alternating narrow leads. Paxton defeated long-time Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary in May. A YouGov/Univision poll from late August into early September showed Talarico leading by 5 points, while an Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll had them nearly tied.
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll conducted in early August shows a near deadlock, with slight differences in support and some undecided voters remaining. A Fox News poll from July shows Talarico ahead by a slim 51% to 48% among registered Texas voters.
Prediction markets reflect the close margins, with platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket showing marginal advantages for Talarico. Political forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the race as a toss-up.