The Cook Political Report has adjusted its forecast for two Midwestern governor’s races, favoring Democrats just a week before the midterm elections. These changes involve Nebraska and Kansas, both states where President Donald Trump previously won comfortably in the 2024 presidential election.
Election Forecast Changes
The Nebraska governor’s race is now considered lean Republican, down from likely Republican. In Kansas, the forecast moved the race from lean Republican to a toss-up. Midterm elections often indicate the national political climate for the governing party, with historical trends showing the president’s party usually losing seats during such cycles. Trump secured victories in Kansas and Nebraska in the 2024 election, running against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.
Current Political Climate
President Trump’s approval ratings have suffered declines recently, impacted by perceptions of his handling of the economy, immigration, employment, and the ongoing conflict in Iran. Across the country, households express concerns about affordability, coinciding with Trump’s efforts to bolster support for potentially vulnerable GOP candidates ahead of November 3.
Responses from Campaigns
Republican nominee Ty Masterson’s campaign in Kansas, and Democratic nominee Cindy Holscher’s campaign, have been contacted for comment, as well as Republican incumbent Jim Pillen’s campaign in Nebraska.
“BREAKING NEWS: Cook Political Report has officially moved our race to a TOSS-UP! Despite over $20 million in spending against us, the momentum is clearly on our side. All gas, no brakes.” – Cindy Holscher on X
State-Specific Insights
In Kansas, the increased competitiveness of the race is partly linked to the intense U.S. Senate contest between Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall. Internal polling data from Holscher supports this shift. Although Republican Ty Masterson retains a lead in most polls, the contest remains highly volatile.
In Nebraska, the crowded ballot includes candidates like Rick Beard from the Legal Marijuana Now Party and Brett Lindstrom from the America First Party. Pillen, backed by Trump, leads in polls, but the presence of these additional candidates could impact the results.
“The presence of an America First candidate could hurt the incumbent, but a Legal Marijuana NOW candidate could also pull from Walz.” – Cook Political Report
Democrats’ Position
According to Cook’s analysis, Democrats could gain two to four governor’s seats in the coming elections. Currently, Republicans hold the majority of governorships, having maintained control for much of the last two decades, except for a Democratic period from around 2007 to 2011. There are 36 state leadership positions on the ballot for next week’s election, evenly split between the parties.
Polling and Prediction Markets
A recent YouGov poll in Nebraska shows Democrat Lynne Walz at 43%, closely trailing Republican Pillen’s 44%. With 2% supporting another candidate and 10% undecided, the race remains tight. The poll, conducted between September 24 and October 3, has a 3.3% margin of error. Prediction market site Kalshi gives Pillen an 82% chance of winning, with Walz at 18%.
In Kansas, YouGov polling gives Masterson 47% compared to Holscher’s 44%. The poll, surveying likely voters from September 24 to October 4, has a 3.2% margin of error. On prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, Masterson holds a strong lead.
The current political landscape remains dynamic, with numerous races predicted to be competitive in the upcoming midterms.