Ahead of California’s gubernatorial June 2 primary, a recent poll shows a tight contest among three candidates seeking to replace Governor Gavin Newsom during a critical period for both the state and the nation. According to a survey by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, 25% of likely California voters support Democrat Xavier Becerra, a former Biden Cabinet member. Republican Steve Hilton, an ex-Fox News commentator and British political strategist, has 21% backing, while Tom Steyer, a Democratic billionaire hedge fund founder turned environmental advocate, garnered 19%.
The survey highlights how Becerra, Hilton, and Steyer have distanced themselves from other contenders. Becerra’s support surged from a mere 5% in March, positioning him as the front-runner. Other candidates like Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, experienced a 5% drop, now ranking fourth. Democratic candidates such as Katie Porter, Matt Mahan, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Tony Thurmond struggled, remaining in single digits.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo noted uncertainty over which candidates will secure the top two spots as only they will proceed to the November general election, without regard to party affiliation. Low voter turnout further complicates predictions, despite all registered voters receiving mail-in ballots.
The ongoing poll, conducted between May 19 and 24, indicates an early lead for Hilton, though DiCamillo anticipates Democratic voters may catch up. Becerra maintains a significant lead over Steyer among likely Democratic voters and among women and Latino voters, while Steyer appeals more to Black voters. Hilton enjoys support from self-identified libertarians, as well as voters from Orange County, the Central Valley, and northern coastal regions.
“We’re assuming that…the Democrats will in fact turn out in the final week after we had concluded our poll and begin to make up ground on what looks like an early lead for Hilton, and those voters favor Becerra,” says DiCamillo.
This election marks an unusual absence of a clear front-runner in California’s gubernatorial contest over the past 25 years, even with numerous candidates. Prominent figures such as former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Senator Alex Padilla chose not to enter, contributing to the race’s pace. Additionally, allegations against former contender Eric Swalwell and record-breaking campaign contributions have influenced the race.
Issues like California’s budget volatility, healthcare funding cuts, and soaring gas prices due to external conflicts impact voter concerns. Protecting voting rights remains a priority, though perspectives differ along party lines. Controversial topics such as President Trump’s policies and California’s unique “jungle” primary system also drive uncertainty.
The fear among Democrats of being excluded from the November election pressured low-polling candidates to exit the race. Yet, the possibility of two Republicans advancing is slim, whereas two Democrats might qualify, reshaping turnout prospects in the general election.
Conducted online with 8,578 registered voters, the poll has a margin of error of about 2 percentage points and highlights the dynamic nature of this year’s gubernatorial race.