The hat of Diane Benjamin, Dallas #2021 precinct chair, peeks into view at a campaign event for Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 18, 2026, in Dallas.
KATY, Texas — Amid loud music and the aroma of smoked meats at a bustling barbeque joint, voters gathered for a political rally supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The setting has drawn a diverse crowd from the Houston suburb of Katy, including Ricardo Vidaurre and his wife. They dance to “YMCA” and praise Paxton. Vidaurre highlights Paxton’s boldness, saying, “He’s not your typical politician.”
Just a day prior, Paxton received President Trump’s endorsement for the state’s GOP U.S. Senate nomination. This primary has entered the record books as the most expensive ever. The reelection campaign for Sen. John Cornyn, a party establishment figure, is now struggling. This GOP battle has created an opportunity for Democrats, eyeing the Senate majority. In Katy, Paxton’s rally feels like an early victory celebration. Vidaurre asserts, “Voting for Cornyn is like voting for a Democrat.”
Paxton’s supporters criticize Cornyn for collaborating with Democrats on bipartisan gun legislation after the 2022 Uvalde school shooting. They accuse him of failing to dismantle the Senate filibuster, hindering the Trump-backed SAVE Act designed to impose stricter voting rules. Republicans have invested over $100 million in this contentious fight, representing a broader struggle for the party’s identity.
Throughout the primaries and runoff, Cornyn and Paxton have claimed their credentials to lead the GOP post-Trump. Cornyn emphasizes his alignment with Trump, asserting he voted Trump’s way more than 99% of the time. Paxton boasts about leading Texas in lawsuits against Democrats. He dismisses Cornyn’s extensive political career, “That’s more stuff in one week than John Cornyn in 42 years. That’s pretty pathetic.”
Paxton, aged 63, enters the race with legal and personal baggage. Over ten years as a state official, he has faced criminal indictments and whistleblower claims. He survived impeachment in the Texas House but was acquitted by the Senate. His estranged wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, sought divorce last summer citing “biblical grounds.” Supporters see his survival through political turmoil as indicative of resilience, dismissing personal drama as “gossip.”
A Divided GOP
Cornyn, at 74, claims the primary reveals a fracture in the Texas GOP’s stronghold. The state has reliably supported Republicans for decades, with no Democrat winning statewide since 1994. Political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus notes, “The Republican Party is pulling itself apart ideologically.” He traces these tensions back over a decade to Trump’s rise. Some worry that if MAGA prevails, the party’s breadth might shrink due to Trump’s policies and declining poll numbers.
This primary, Rottinghaus suggests, “will define the future of the Texas Republican Party.” A Cornyn win would endorse traditional conservatives, while a Paxton victory signals a shift to the MAGA populist faction. Despite growing influence, Rottinghaus warns MAGA populism may face more challenges in a general election.
Cornyn campaigns on a broader appeal. He fears that a Paxton nomination increases Democrats’ chances and risks party losses elsewhere. Cornyn describes a potential Paxton candidacy as “the first chance they’ve had in 30 or 40 years” to flip a significant office.
Cornyn backer Vicki Fullerton views Trump’s endorsement of Paxton as a betrayal, worrying about resource allocation in tight Senate contests. Cornyn echoes these concerns, citing potential impacts on close races in Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina due to financial focus on Texas.
Democratic Opportunities
Strategist Chuck Rocha believes Republican challenges could benefit Democrats by creating “blue cracks” in Texas’s red landscape. He points to voters’ frustration with rising costs and gas prices as leverage. Despite past Democratic setbacks in Texas, Rocha is optimistic about their prospects. He highlights that unlike Republicans, Democrats avoided runoffs among Senate nominees. He sees Latinos previously supporting Trump returning to the Democratic fold over the economy and immigration policies.
Rocha and others argue that victory in Texas could enable Senate majority gains for Democrats come November, exploiting divisions within the Republican ranks. “One thing you don’t do in politics is if your enemy is digging a hole,” Rocha said. “You don’t run over and take the shovel out of their hands.”