The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, achieved a significant win in the Saxony-Anhalt election. Exit polls indicated that the AfD received 44.5 percent of the votes, significantly ahead of its competitors. This outcome represents the strongest performance by a far-right party in a German state since World War II. However, the possibility of forming a government remains uncertain since other parties typically avoid coalitions with the AfD.
This result poses a setback for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc while marking notable success for the AfD. The party has established substantial support in eastern Germany, focusing on stricter immigration policies, opposition to the established political system, and promoting a more nationalist platform.
Led by Ulrich Siegmund in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD maintained polling numbers above 40 percent before the election, surpassing the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU), the state’s ruling party. The pressure is mounting on Germany’s traditional parties, which have thus far avoided forming alliances with the AfD.
Voter engagement in Saxony-Anhalt reached unprecedented levels during the election, with 65.3 percent of eligible voters participating by 4 p.m. according to Christa Dieckmann, the State Election Commissioner. This turnout rate was considerably higher than earlier elections, where, for example, it was 41 percent in 2021 and 47.1 percent in 2016.
Key Election Issues
Immigration has become a pivotal subject in this election, highlighting a wider discourse happening across Germany as the federal elections approach. The AfD focused on tightening border controls, reducing asylum applications, and enhancing deportations. They argue that current migration levels place a burden on housing, education, and public services. Immigration consistently ranks high among voter concerns, alongside economic issues and living costs, contributing to increased political involvement and turnout in this election.
Implications of an AfD-Led State
Should the AfD govern, the party would wield direct influence over state policies in areas such as education, policing, and segments of immigration policy. The AfD’s roots in the former East Germany have benefited from anti-immigration attitudes and doubts about Germany’s military aid to Ukraine amidst its conflict with Russia.
The Saxony-Anhalt AfD was labeled a “far-right extremist organization” in 2023 by the state’s Office for the Protection of the Constitution. The party manifesto advocates for a pronounced policy shift, emphasizing more rigid migration measures, educational and security policy changes, enhanced support for traditional families, and development of nuclear energy. It also proposes reducing wind power, downsizing public broadcasting, and easing taxes and regulations for businesses.
Siegmund has voiced the AfD’s intent to implement their agenda if they secure a majority, offering the chance to showcase their policies in government rather than in opposition.
Significance of the AfD Victory
This success aids the AfD’s quest to extend their influence beyond eastern Germany, strengthening their presence in national politics. The result compounds pressure on Merz and the CDU, notably concerning migration and economic topics. The upcoming federal election in 2029 may see the AfD attempting to capitalize on their gains and aim for a larger role in national governance.
Future Developments
The CDU has expressed a reluctance to collaborate with the AfD, leaving the formation of an alternative government up for consideration, should the AfD lack sufficient seats to govern solo. The overall outcome will decide not merely if the AfD has attained their landmark breakthrough, but also whether they can convert that victory into state governance control.
PD Dr. Benjamin Höhne, interim professor for Comparative European Governance Systems at the Chemnitz University of Technology, noted that the likelihood of the AfD taking power is low due to the broader political rejection of the party. He mentioned that significant reactions are unlikely immediately as forthcoming state elections are scheduled in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. Political entities may await these results before making further moves.