Current Polling Landscape
The latest UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll highlights a tight race among three candidates: Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, Nithya Raman, and reality TV star Spencer Pratt. The poll places Bass at 26 percent, Raman at 25 percent, and Pratt at 22 percent. Given the margin of error, no clear front-runner has emerged.
Earlier polls had shown Bass with a more definite lead. Voter turnout will likely play a critical role in determining which candidates advance to the November runoff.
Candidate Dynamics
Bass, endorsed by former Vice President Kamala Harris, is a prominent figure in this race. Doug Herman, a Bass campaign adviser, emphasized the choice between candidates with varying track records on homelessness and public safety.
Raman and Pratt have both gained roughly eight points from previous polls, while Bass’ support remains unchanged. Their campaigns reflect differing focuses, with Pratt critiquing Bass’ disaster response and Raman challenging her policies on homelessness.
What The New Poll Shows
The poll, conducted from May 19–24, surveyed 1,913 registered voters, including 1,351 likely voters. With a margin of error of about 3 percent, the poll shows the race tightening.
Mark DiCamillo, director of Berkeley IGS polls, points out the significance of different voter coalitions backing each candidate, making turnout decisive.
The number of undecided voters has decreased to 10 percent from 26 percent in March, indicating many have now chosen their preferred candidate.
Shaping Factors
Voter concerns over issues like homelessness, housing affordability, and public safety have shaped the campaign. Recent fires have also influenced voter perceptions, especially affecting Pratt’s campaign strategy.
Pratt has garnered attention through AI-generated campaign videos, though their effect on voters remains uncertain.
Comparison with Earlier Polls
Polling data has fluctuated, with an Emerson College poll showing Bass leading at 30 percent. Earlier UC Berkeley polls depicted a fragmented race, with a high number of undecided voters.
The race remains competitive, with polling consistently placing Bass in the lead, but not by a broad margin. Both Raman and Pratt have significantly gained ground.
Prediction Markets
Prediction markets continue to favor Bass as the likely winner, with Polymarket setting her odds at 71 percent, while Kalshi shows 62 percent. These markets offer insight into crowd expectations but differ from polls in competitiveness for the second spot.
Pratt’s Sister Weighs In
Stephanie Pratt, Spencer’s sister, has expressed support for his candidacy, highlighting her initial skepticism and the efforts Spencer has made post-fires.
Her comments underline the unique blend of celebrity and policy issues present in this race.
Looking Ahead
The top two candidates will proceed to a November runoff if no candidate secures a majority in the June 2 primary. With leading candidate support converging and fewer undecided voters, the race outcome might rely heavily on turnout in its final days.