The Florida Senate race between Republican Senator Ashley Moody and Democrat Angie Nixon has reached a critical point, according to two recent opinion polls. These polls indicate a closely contested race, labeled as a “dead heat” by Moody’s campaign team in a recent email alert to supporters. Winning this seat, once held by Marco Rubio, would mark a significant victory for Democrats as they aim to gain control of the Senate in the upcoming November midterms. Notably, Democrats have not achieved a statewide win in Florida since 2018, and Republicans possess a substantial lead in voter registration numbers.
In a statement from the Moody campaign, they emphasized the tight competition, stating: “Two polls. Two dead heats. Trump-backed Ashley Moody is tied with Angie Nixon in the biggest Senate special election of 2026 – for the seat Marco Rubio held for fourteen years.” The polling data referenced in this announcement comes from St. Pete Polls and Change Research.
New Polls
St. Pete Polls conducted a survey with 913 likely Florida voters, indicating a narrow lead for Moody with 45.2 percent compared to Nixon’s 44.8 percent. This survey took place between September 15 and 17, using automated phone calls and peer-to-peer SMS messages. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.2 percentage points. The data revealed Nixon leading among independents with 49.8 percent to Moody’s 37.4 percent, and a strong preference from voters aged 18 to 29, where Nixon received 63.7 percent versus 25.3 percent for Moody. Conversely, non-Hispanic white voters and those aged 70 or older showed a preference for Moody. It is important to approach these demographic details cautiously due to small sample sizes.
Another poll by Change Research, conducted for Freedom Project USA, surveyed 1,107 likely voters between September 7 and 9. This poll reported an exact tie, with both candidates securing 47 percent of the vote. Additionally, former President Trump had a net favorability rating of minus ten. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
A different poll by Quantus Insights revealed Moody leading with 50 percent to Nixon’s 43 percent, involving 733 likely voters from September 8 to 10, with a 4.1 percentage point margin of error.
Newsweek reached out to both campaign teams for comments via online inquiry and email outside regular office hours on a Saturday.
Political Context
The tied polls are significant, considering Republicans had approximately 1.5 million more registered voters in Florida than Democrats at the end of July. Trump carried the state by 13 points in the 2024 elections. Republican Senate contenders have historically outperformed Democrats by significant margins in previous years. Despite a lead in recent surveys, Moody remains the frontrunner, with election analysis website Decision Desk HQ assigning her a 78 percent chance of winning.
A RealClearPolling average consolidates the recent polls, giving Moody a five-point lead with 48.3 percent support compared to Nixon’s 43.3 percent.
Primary Surprise
Moody assumed her Senate position in January 2025 following an appointment by Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. This followed Rubio’s departure to become Trump’s Secretary of State. In Democrat developments, Nixon secured the nomination by defeating retired army lieutenant colonel Alexander Vindman, who had outspent her during the primaries. Vindman’s loss to Nixon, a social democrat, was a substantial surprise.
Presently, there are 53 Republican Senators contrasted with 47 who align with the Democratic caucus. Losing control of the Senate this November would severely limit Trump’s influence in the latter half of his term.