Sweden is preparing for a significant election that could alter its political landscape. As a member of NATO, the nation faces a pivotal decision. Across Europe, right-wing populist parties have been gaining ground, and Sweden follows this trend.
Competing Political Forces
The election sees Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s center-right coalition against a center-left group led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats. A key part of this election is the potential inclusion of the right-wing populist Sweden Democrats in the government for the first time. This party has been moving from the fringes of Swedish politics into the center of power over the past two decades. They first entered parliament in 2010 and became the second-largest party by 2022. During this time, they supported Kristersson’s minority government without holding cabinet positions. Now, Kristersson aims to build a majority government with the Sweden Democrats receiving ministerial positions if the right secures another term.
This election serves as a test to see if Swedish voters are ready to accept a party previously shunned by the political establishment into executive power. As Andreas Önnerfors, a professor at Linnaeus University, notes, the focus has shifted from political policies to potential government formations.
Changing Voter Sentiment
Recent polls indicate a close race, with the center-left coalition slightly ahead, polling at 50.8%, while the right coalition stands at 47.6%. Over the years, established parties maintained a distance from the Sweden Democrats due to their extremist roots. In 2018, Kristersson assured Holocaust survivor Hédi Fried that he wouldn’t cooperate with them. The Sweden Democrats’ early history involved connections to neo-Nazi and white supremacist groups.
Under the leadership of Jimmie Åkesson since 2005, the party has made efforts to moderate its image by expelling extremists and presenting itself as a mainstream right-wing entity. Their policies focus on deporting illegal residents, tightening citizenship laws, and enforcing strict assimilation requirements. They’ve balanced typical right-wing views with those appealing to working-class voters. This blend has appealed to ordinary citizens, says Önnerfors.
Immigration and Crime as Central Issues
The party has influenced Swedish politics, particularly in framing immigration and crime as key issues. Their success is partly due to significant societal changes and shifting voter perceptions. According to Professor Niklas Bolin from Mid Sweden University, both the right and Social Democrats have adopted more restrictive stances on immigration and crime.
During the European migration crisis in 2015, Sweden received 163,000 asylum applications, leading to discussions on integration, segregation, and rising crime. The country’s approach has since shifted, resulting in decreased asylum immigration since 1985 and reduced gang violence, with shootings dropping from 391 in 2022 to 158 in 2025.
Bolin notes that although immigration and integration dissatisfaction remain, crime concerns and dissatisfaction with established parties contribute to the Sweden Democrats’ support. Their backing is strong among men, working-class individuals, and those residing in smaller cities.
This election challenges Sweden’s traditional low-crime image, generous welfare state, and liberal attitudes. It tests whether a party once sidelined is prepared to enter the core of government.