Dead Heat in Texas Governor’s Race
Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa are neck and neck in the latest poll regarding the state’s gubernatorial race. This comes as President Donald Trump and leading Republicans head to Texas for major midterm campaign efforts.
Historically, Democrats have struggled to make headway in Texas, which has held a Republican stronghold for decades. Since Ann Richards’ 1990 win, Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic governor. Republican presidential nominees have consistently secured Texas since 1980.
Despite these challenges, Democrats believe issues like economic concerns, Trump’s declining approval ratings, and ongoing conflicts, such as the war with Iran, might offer opportunities in state races, including the governor’s race.
Optimism among Democrats is tempered by analyses from Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which rate the Texas governor’s race as ‘Likely Republican’. However, Cook Political Report recently adjusted their rating from ‘Solid Republican’.
Key Campaign Efforts in Texas
Trump and other GOP leaders are currently in Texas for an event named “Trump-a-Palooza,” a noteworthy gathering intended to rally voter support before November’s elections.
Inquiries to press teams for Abbott and Hinojosa were made by Newsweek on Wednesday.
Texas Governor’s Race Overview
The Texas governor’s race is part of 36 gubernatorial contests this year, alongside significant races in states like Michigan, Alaska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia.
Abbott, a strong conservative and ally to Trump, first won Texas’s governorship in 2014 and was reelected in 2018 and 2022. Winning a fourth term could make him the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry’s tenure from 2000 to 2015.
Hinojosa, a lawyer elected to the Texas House in 2017, won the Democratic nomination in March.
Forecasters view Abbott as a solid favorite, with betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket estimating an 82 percent chance of his victory.
Latest Poll Results
A N+ Univision/YouGov poll surveyed 1,000 voters, finding Hinojosa and Abbott tied at 47 percent. Five percent remain undecided, while 1 percent support another candidate.
Hinojosa holds a 12-point lead among Latino voters, 54 percent to Abbott’s 42 percent. Her edge increases among Latina women at 57 percent over Abbott’s 39 percent. Among Latino men, Hinojosa leads narrowly at 49 percent to Abbott’s 47 percent.
Hinojosa boasts a higher favorability rating than Abbott. She is viewed favorably by 49 percent of respondents, whereas Abbott is favored by 41 percent.
The alignment of demographics shows Abbott holds a 24-point lead among white voters, while Hinojosa takes the lead among Latino and Black voters.
This poll surveyed between August 27 and September 4, 2026, with a margin of error at ±3.6 percentage points. For Latino respondents, the error margin is ±5 percentage points.
On social media, Hinojosa expressed optimism, emphasizing issues such as education and economic relief.
Trust in Political Parties
Democrats have higher trust ratings than Republicans across various issues, excluding border security, where 42 percent favor Republicans over Democrats at 38 percent.
Democrats hold 45-to-29 percent leads on issues related to gas prices, inflation, and immigrant rights protection.
Additional Polls
Other polls show Abbott leading, though less significantly than his 2022 victory margins.
An Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation poll with 1,167 likely voters shows a narrow one-point lead for Abbott over Hinojosa, 46.9 percent to 45.8 percent.
A Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Abbott leading Hinojosa, 49 percent to 42 percent, with 7 percent undecided.
During July, polls indicated swings in Abbott’s lead margin, highlighting changing voter sentiment.
The latest surveys also spotlight Trump’s approval ratings, indicating diverse national opinions that could influence local races.
Republican Convention in Texas
Republicans are hosting a major midterm convention in Dallas, aiming to boost midterm outcomes. This convention seeks to amplify Trump’s policy effectiveness and strengthen GOP messaging.
With the elections approaching, both parties are massively investing in Texas, hoping to sway the traditionally Republican state.