Recent data from Marquette Law School indicates a significant rise in President Donald Trump’s approval rating among white voters. The latest poll, conducted from July 22 to 27, surveyed 639 white respondents and reported a 51 percent approval for Trump’s job performance, with a 49 percent disapproval, resulting in a slight positive net approval of +2. This marks a noticeable change from a previous poll conducted in June, where Trump’s net approval was at -12 among the same demographic. During that period, only 44 percent approved of his performance, while 56 percent disapproved.
This improvement in approval comes after various polls depicted a decline in Trump’s support, spurred by concerns about economic issues and international conflicts. This shift has significant implications due to the critical role white voters play in U.S. elections. Historically, white voters have been pivotal to Trump’s political achievements, thus any decline in their support could affect the Republican performance in the coming midterm elections.
Midterm elections often result in the president’s party losing congressional seats. Considering the stakes involved with control over Congress, even marginal shifts in voter support could impact the results significantly. If white voters switch allegiance to Democrats or abstain from voting due to dissatisfaction, it may jeopardize Republican plans to retain congressional control.
Other Polling Data
In contrast, a CNN poll in July placed Trump’s net approval among white voters at -20, the lowest during his term. Conducted by SSRS from July 23 to 27 among 1,225 U.S. adults, the poll exhibited declining support for Trump over the past year. From an even approval in July 2025, it dropped to -12 by March and further to -20 in July, alongside decreasing enthusiasm among Republicans, with only 78 percent expressing approval.
Economist/YouGov polls also suggest a steady decline in Trump’s support among white voters and those without a college degree—an essential part of his base—since the beginning of his second term. Their recent survey showed a -14 net approval among white voters and -6 among those without degrees, compared to a +14 and +27 respectively, in February of the previous year.
Expert Analysis
Political science expert Costas Panagopoulos from Northeastern University cautions against quick conclusions based on the Marquette poll. He highlights that most polls indicate a downward trend in Trump’s approval among white voters, partly due to economic concerns and international relations. He suggests this poll might be an outlier or reflect methodological differences rather than a genuine shift. Sampling variations, question phrasing, and respondent demographics can influence poll results significantly.
White House Response
The White House has dismissed concerns over Trump’s low approval ratings, emphasizing his 2024 election win as the ultimate indicator of public backing. White House spokesman Davis Ingle stressed that Trump’s agenda reflects the mandate given by his voters. He remarked that Trump is making progress on key issues like job creation and reducing inflation, emphasizing significant accomplishments both domestically and internationally.
Looking Ahead
White voters have consistently formed a central part of Trump’s political base since his 2016 victory, often providing him with more favorable ratings than the nationwide average. With overall approval ratings declining and support among white voters fluctuating, the trajectory of Trump’s approval leading to the November midterms could have substantial electoral consequences.